ANALYSIS: Who will be Jake Oettinger's back-up next season?
It seems like a simple question with a rather straight-forward answer, yet there are some more layers into who could, should and probably will be the Stars back-up in the 2022-23 NHL season.
The situation in net for the Stars has been the most questionable part of their roster structure in September last year, aside from troubles with secondary scoring. The Stars were entering the 2021-22 season with four (!) NHL caliber goalies sharing the nets in training camp last September, namely Ben Bishop, Anton Khudobin, Braden Holtby and Jake Oettinger.
Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin were arguably one of, if not the best NHL goalie duo for some stretches between the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons. That mere fact mightily helped Stars reach the playoffs during both campaigns - and be rather successful in them, too.
Dallas Stars are a team that relies on goaltending more heavily than other teams, as good goaltending has become an actual identity trait for them, along with stingy defense. I’ve always thought over-reliance on goaltending is not a viable long-term solution when building a successful franchise, but it certainly helps, that’s for sure.
You know the old saying: “Show me a good coach and I’ll show you a good goaltender.”
After Ben Bishop’s injury woes in the summer of 2020, the Stars had to rely on Anton Khudobin and Jake Oettinger during covid-plagued 2020-21 campaign and it showed. Although Oettinger had great potential, from a development perspective it was probably one year too soon for him to enter the big show, as he was scheduled to spend the entire year playing a big bulk of games down in Austin for the Texas Stars.
He definitely stood his ground, with .911 save percentage and 2.36 goals-against-average in 29 games entered which was already better than Khudobin’s pedestrian numbers that season (.905 save percentage and 2.54 GAA).
It was this sped-up developmental curve of Oettinger’s career that led many of Stars fans (myself included) to believe he'll definitely start the 2021-22 season with the big team. Credit where credit is due though - Jim Nill’s then head-scratching signing of Braden Holtby to a 1 year contract pretty much saved the season for the Stars, even though Holtby played only 24 games in the Victory Green team.
He had more inside information about Bishop and acquired Holtby in case of any other injuries, which, to his credit, did occur. So what was predicted as a Khudobin/Holtby tandem to start the season very soon became Oettinger/Holtby and then Oettinger/Scheel for a short period of time.
At one point during the season, in February and March, Jake Oettinger played 19 out of 21 games for the Stars and it showed.
The quality of his performances was slightly but surely decreasing mainly because he needed rest, both mentally and physically. That’s why Jim Nill went out and acquired Scott Wedgewood for what we know now is a 3rd round pick in 2023 NHL Entry Draft. Pretty good price, if you ask me. Wedgewood provided some much needed quality starts and most importantly, wins sporting a decent .913 save percentage.
Let’s state the obvious. Stars have slowly but surely moved from a tandem goalie strategy into clear cut No.1 in Jake Oettinger. That was to be expected after they moved up in 2017 to draft him 26th overall. His performances lived up to the position he now rightfully occupies.
For instance, this is how well Oettinger has fared analytically in the past season compared to Vezina Trophy surefire winner Igor Shesterkin. The big number (in Oettinger’s case 74) represents overall quality percentile averaging other parts of performance detailed below. The bigger the numbers are, the smaller portion of goalies were better at the given situation.
They will need to find a reliable back-up to support him during upcoming seasons and that alone can define whether they’ll make the postseason or not.
You can compare both directly with the back-up options out there - so let’s go through possible candidates for that spot:
Scott Wedgewood, 29, current salary 825,000$ (UFA)
Let’s start with the obvious and probably the best option out there. The advantages of re-signing Wedgewood are clear. He’s at an ideal age and he clearly fits with the team so well after the trade deadline. Moreover, he will potentially be cheap - and that’s why he should be a top Stars priority when looking at back-up options. They’ll not have an abundance of space, especially after how well Oettinger has played this season and during playoffs, as he’ll need a new deal, too.
In my analysis of the Stars cap situation, I projected Wedgewood signing a 2 year deal at 850,000$ AAV. It may sound low but he’s never signed a 1-way contract in his career up until this point and he’ll probably appreciate some financial stability going forward. The more years you offer, the lower you can go with the AAV, obviously. I concluded 2 years are ideal for both team and player, not bounding both sides for too long and still having a possibility for another back-up contract at 31 years of age for Wedgewood.
Wedgewood is a very atypical goalie with his movements and style but does the job. He’s not a world beater by any means but he’d probably provide what the Stars need - let Oettinger rest for 20-25 games during the course of regular season.
If, for any reason, Stars are not able to re-sign Wedgewood, here are other free agents they’d be probably choosing from:
Disclaimer: Yes, they could potentially sign even Marc-Andre Fleury - but realistically, they certainly won’t have that much of a cap space required, even when they’re very open to re-signing John Klingberg, among others. So let’s look at feasible options available - meaning a near league-minimum contract similar to what Wedgewood could ask for.
Eric Comrie, 26, current cap hit 750,000$ (UFA)
Comrie is an interesting example, as he’s only 26 years old yet already an unrestricted free agent. He’s played 19 games this past season backing up Connor Helleybuck with a very good .920 save percentage and 2.58 goals against average. His performances are backed up with more than solid advanced metrics as well.
If I’m Kevin Cheveldayoff, he’d be re-signed yesterday, although he certainly deserves a raise from his current contract. How much, that is the question. However, I simply don’t see any offer Jim Nill could provide that Winnipeg cannot pay too, so there’s a certain limit where you can go. I wonder what the player’s agent's response would be if you offered a 1.25M contract for 2 years. They’d have to listen, at least. Also, it’s questionable whether Comrie is open to a change of scenery.
Jaroslav Halak, 36, current cap hit 1,500,000$ (UFA)
Halak is looking for his probable final contract and will be available for around something around 1 million 1 year type of deal. His performances in Vancouver are nothing to write home about but he’d certainly like to play more games than for the Canucks last season as Stars would ideally also not want to be so dependent on Oettinger as Canucks were on Thatcher Demko. Would Halak be able to provide much needed quality starts?
You can see on his metrics that sometimes overall save percentage and goals against average doesn’t tell the whole story, as he’s probably a slightly better option than Wedgewood. Halak posted .903 save percentage but that was behind a leaky Canucks defense, oftentimes on the second night of back-to-back.
The disadvantage of this deal would be the term. The Stars would like to cover the back-up position for at least two years and have some cost certainty with it, given their cap space will probably be even tighter coming into the 2023-24 season, but only just. Halak would for sure be open for a 2 year deal, the same way 36-year old Ryan Suter was open for a 4 year deal. My take - it just wouldn’t be the correct move, counting also possible injuries, to which Halak is somewhat prone to.
Braden Holtby, 32, current cap hit 2,000,000$ (UFA)
Oh, look who we have here. Yes, Braden Holtby is still an option at this stage, although not a very realistic one. I’ve just inserted him here so that the message is clear, if Holtby would be open to a discount and be healthy at the same time, it could be digestible for both parties to sign a 2 year contract worth slightly below 2 million per. That’s a bit too much on what the Stars would be willing to offer to an injury prone back-up, but it’s certainly an option.
Holtby’s numbers for the past season have been very good and he's a known commodity for the Stars brass. At this point, the only unknown is the nature of the injury and whether it could be something career-threatening.
Kevin Lankinen, 27, current cap hit 800,000$ (UFA)
Lankinen had a downright bad year but is still relatively young and could come at a cheap price of around what we are projecting to pay Scott Wedgewood. He’d be open to signing a multi year deal as well in my opinion and Stars played him relatively often to know what he’s made of.
Lankinen wasn’t very good on the surface and neither in the advanced metrics though - but it very well could be an effect of playing behind atrocious D in Chicago and he could still have some potential. If they – and especially Stars goalie coach Jeff Reese see potential in him – it’d certainly be an interesting signing. Reese has a pretty good eye on that as he’s projected Holtby to come back on track after many had dismissed his abilities after a catastrophic year in Vancouver. I’m not saying that would be the case with Lankinen, as I’m not the goalie coach.
Honorable mentions
There are other options available, such as David Rittich or Casey DeSmith but the deeper we go, the less attractive options are there to be found. For instance, Rittich is way too crazy and unreliable for Jim Nill’s liking and Casey DeSmith will probably ask around 2 million AAV, if not more. Therefore they’re not totally applicable for our analysis. You can see they’re pretty even when it comes to an actual performance.
Don’t forget about Anton Khudobin
The main reason why we’re optimally looking for a back-up with a contract around league minimum is a cap space. The other reason is Anton Khudobin. He is aiming to be back from his surgery in September, just in time for the start of the training camp.
That would certainly influence possible cap implications for the Stars. Performance-wise, healthy Anton Khudobin would be an ideal back-up for Jake Oettinger. If he isn’t at 100% things get rough, as evidenced here in the Goals Saved About Expectations metric. By the way, if I said Lankinen was downright bad this season, this graphic certainly proves it. I’ve also included teammates of possible back-up options for a better context and comparison of their respective performances.
Stars are now currently on the hook for around 2.2M in cap space allocated to Anton Khudobin, even if he doesn’t dress for another game next season. If he were to play, the number goes up to 3.3M and that’s a bit too much at this point of his career, honestly.
The best move would be to bite the bullet and trade Khudobin’s contract with some sweetener to the likes of Arizona Coyotes or other rebuilding team and use that saved money for other necessary extensions or prying higher profile back-up goalie, possibly even 1B option similar to what Khudobin was to Bishop in between 2018-2020. I wonder what the price on that might be — but surely not more than a 3rd round pick, as he’s in the last year of his contract.
Bottom line, the Stars are still very likely to extend Scott Wedgewood. If that’s enough it remains a mystery at this point. They are basically one injury away from being in a real pickle. Their goalie depth with both Khudobin and Holtby presumably unavailable for next season isn’t spectacular at all. Their recent signing for the AHL team, Matt Murray (not to be confused with the 2-time Stanley Cup Champion, Matt Murray) is showing signs of great potential, basically dragging the baby Stars team into the preliminary round of AHL playoffs.
He will definitely need more seasoning as he's the current projected starter in the AHL and we don’t want to rush him into anything. He’s on the AHL deal and would need to sign a NHL deal in order to be applicable for the Dallas Stars plans. Other than that, the Stars have only Adam Scheel and talented Remi Poirier signed through the 2022-23 season. Colton Point is an RFA and I don’t think Stars will offer a qualifying contract to him, based on his performances.
That’s why it is a more complicated issue than it might seem. Yes, having Oettinger and Wedgewood healthy and 100% is an ideal scenario for next season, cap-wise and you could argue also performance-wise. Until, it isn’t due to injury or something even less predictable.
Luckily, the Stars have gotten pretty good at anticipating problems at goalie position during the past 2 years.