Dallas Stars Prospect Pyramid & Thoughts (September 2022 edition)
With the Traverse City prospect tournament coming, here are some quick takes on some of the most important prospects Dallas Stars currently have. Credit to Steve Dangle on the pyramid idea, as well.
Everyone loves prospect talk, because it’s the kind of talk that makes you excited about your team’s future for one reason only: hope.
Hope is a dangerous thing. A classic would say, “watch it fly by as the pendulum swings”. It’s something that may keep you awake and trying to reach your desired goal while others may already be asleep. It’s the integral part of being a fan, in any sport. You always hope. For the next goal, for the next save or catch. For the whistle to be blown or for the match to end in your team’s favor.
Prospects are players who are not fully established on your team and may provide that little bit of extra excitement, when looking to the future. For some teams in the NHL it’s definitely a point of concern (hello, Bruins fans). Fortunately for the Stars, prospect talk is something everybody in Texas loves to engage in – mostly because of some shrewd drafting in the last 2 or 3 years and also because of the success of that 2017 draft class, containing NHL stars like Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson or Jake Oettinger. (Maybe, we will insert Jacob Peterson to that group as well in a couple of years).
Gone are the days of Scott Glennie or Julius Honka. The Dallas Stars scouting department has managed to stock up almost every position with some serious NHL talent. In some cases, the talent has been crowned as NHL All-Star potential – and probably rightfully so. We still have to be careful though, as proper development is arguably even more important than skillful scouting.
That’s why the list of Stars prospects is really fluid and there are some fallers and risers every few months. I’ve tried to make a cut who is and is not a prospect anymore via NHL experience. Ty Dellandrea is an example of a player, who has already played 27 games but at the highest level, but that was mostly due to injuries in covid-shortened season. He is not eligible for the Calder trophy anymore but still rates as a prospect in my eyes.
Another factor is age. Fredrik Olofsson, recently signed from Swedish league, may not have played a single NHL game but is already 26, therefore does not count as a prospect. Same goes for players like Joseph Cecconi, Ryan Shea, Rhett Gardner, Jerad Rosburg or Nick Caamano. I’ve had players like Riley Tufte or Fredrik Karlstrom on the fence but since Marian Studenic falls into that same category, I no longer consider them as prospects. They’re your depth guys.
I don’t like to rank players as it’s really subjective and I don't really want to argue if a random player is a better prospect than the other. Therefore I’ve tried to divide players into 4 main categories – a) Potential NHL Star, b) Surefire NHL Player, c) Potential NHL Player and d) NHL Hopeful at best. I’ve also taken some inspiration from Steve Dangle’s prospect pyramid (hence the catchy name).
So without further ado, here’s current Dallas Stars Prospect Pyramid:
Category 1: Potential NHL Star
Wyatt Johnston
He’s my top Stars prospect with the highest ceiling until proven otherwise. He’s capable of playing up and down the lineup, can create, shoot and skate. I’m seeing something Seguin-esque in him and really hoping he can fulfill his potential. If he manages to do so, the Stars could have one of the best center depths in the league and for the long haul. He could be a big factor already this season.
Mavrik Bourque
Bourque is a unique playmaker with a good (maybe not a great) shot who could provide something Stars currently lack in their lineup construction while being responsible on both sides of the ice. That the Stars played a cup final and still got him at 30th spot still baffles me. He’ll definitely make it in the NHL and if he plays his cards right, could also be a star. He just probably needs that one extra year in the AHL, as Hintz or Robertson did.
Logan Stankoven
His value got boosted during this summer's WJC and for good reasons. He’s lethal when around the net, can produce from both center and the wing. His compete level is really something that sticks out and I don’t know why, but I see a smaller Joe Pavelski in him. A potential NHL Star, indeed. He is very likely to return to Kamloops and fight for the Memorial Cup as he’s (same as Johnston) ineligible to play for the Texas Stars this year.
Category 2: Surefire NHL Player
Lian Bichsel
He hasn't signed yet with the Stars but I think it's mostly to get him an extra year of development in the Swedish league. His big, bulldozing presence with the ability to create offense is your typical modern shutdown defenceman and will be very much needed in the coming years, as the pipeline on D is somewhat thinner than it is in forward group.
Thomas Harley
Harley is a known commodity for Stars fans now, for sure but he's still technically a prospect albeit not a rookie anymore. He will be requested to fill the shoes of one John Klingberg and it's possible there will be learning mistakes along the way – as it's just his style of play, some say he's your typical high risk & high reward player. Moving the puck has been an issue for Stars D-core and Harley is here to solve it.
Ty Dellandrea
Ty is on the verge of being or not being an actual prospect anymore, but given his small playing time in the NHL I still consider him as a prospect, along with Riley Damiani. He's your ideal bottom six center, who can kill penalties and even drive some offense as the times of one-trick ponies in the NHL are slowly but surely dying. He's really great at the dot and has those team captain capabilities that a small number of players actually have.
Artem Grushnikov
I've thought long and hard about whether Grushnikov is a surefire NHL player and I really couldn't find any reasons for him not to be. For his size he's a very mobile defenceman who shoots left, but can actually be a proper shutdown player – the type that many fans consider Esa Lindell to be. Compared to Lindell, Grushnikov can move the puck better and therefore is better suited for the modern game. He will be a Star already in 1 or 2 seasons.
Category 3: Potential NHL Player
Riley Damiani
I'm probably a bit lower on Damiani than others because still remains a kind of a question mark for me whether he has all the tools to make it in the NHL. He wasn't named the best rookie in the AHL for no reason as he definitely has some scoring touch to go with. Top 9 is just projected to be so stacked in the upcoming years with the inflow of talent that I really could see Damiani be the odd-man out, as you only have so many roster spots. I root for him to make it through but I wouldn't be surprised if the Stars include him in a trade for defensive help.
Christian Kyrou
Stars are hoping Kyrou will become what John Klingberg has been for them and it's still a big question mark. He could become Julius Honka as well, which is what I'm afraid of a bit, but let's focus on the positives here. He has a great shot and under his brother's oversight he could already see first-hand what's required to become a pro. He is a bit of a late bloomer making this year's draft cut as probably the oldest available non-overager.
Antonio Stranges
The biggest question mark in Stranges is if and also how his 10-to-2 skating style transfers into the men's game. He's very flashy and speedy and we have seen that some of his highlight reel plays have gone viral around the hockey world and for good reason. Upcoming Traverse City tournament will be only a stepping stone, where he really needs to take the next step is the AHL season against men. Only after that will we know more about his overall potential.
Francesco Arcuri
Arcuri has just signed his entry level deal after an impressive season with Kingston Frontenacs and one Shane Wright. He could be a decent middle-6 winger who has a great scoring touch but that's really 2 or 3 seasons from now at minimum. Good thing about that is the Stars are in no place to rush players like him in the development. He will get all the space in Cedar Park to further work on his game to become NHL ready but first we will see how he copes in Kingston without Shane Wright and Martin Chromiak and be THE GUY to lead the offense.
Conner Roulette
Roulette is really a creative player who has seen quite a progress in his development in the last year, becoming a steady two-way presence for Seattle in the WHL and Memorial Cup. His frame is a bit smaller but I really see a great potential bottom 6 player for the Dallas Stars. He just got traded within CHL to Saskatoon Blades and could be primed for a career year so far. He's definitely one to watch.
Matej Blumel
Blumel is a guy who I really hoped Jim Nill could snag during this summer as a free agent, after the Oilers failed to offer him a contract. He's still only 22 and although his scoring from Czech league isn't something to write home about, as he's not really known to be a scorer per-se, but his underlying metrics were fantastic, one of the best in the league, in fact. He could be our new Mattias Janmark if he plays his cards right. These kinds of players are much needed in a flat-cap world.
Oskar Back
Back is really your dependable fourth-line center, whose offense got a bit dry after what some scouts refer to as “too quick promotion” to play with the men. He didn't really have the time and space to work on his offense amongst his peers but his defensive work is quite effective. He isn't a sure bet to make the A-team, but has a bigger chance than others thanks to his pro experience at a young age.
Category 4: NHL hopeful at best, probably future AHLer
Gavin White
White is an overager, yet very interesting right-handed defenceman, who got his fair share of shifts with Grushnikov at Hamilton. They could be promoted together next year to Texas Stars and create a pretty interesting partnership that reminds me a bit of Lindell - Johns years in Cedar Park.
Albert Sjoberg
Sjoberg is a long-term project who is still projected to play in Allsvenskan this year, Swedish second league where his production wasn't great last year. He got nominated to World Juniors at least, to wet his feet against the best in his age category.
Daniel Ljungman
Ljungman is a responsible center who has troubles with his movement but is playing against the men at a very young age. He reminds me a little bit of Oskar Back in his development curve, so it'll be pretty interesting if it is a successful one for either of them.
Remi Poirier
Poirier is a depth option for Texas Stars for this upcoming season and is very likely to play in the ECHL as well, which might not be a bad case, actually. He needs playing time against men and Texas's cage could become crowded with Murray, Scheel and potentially even Khudobin.
Dawson Barteaux
Barteaux is a right-handed defenceman whose development got a bit stalled last season in the AHL. He has really an outside chance to make the NHL but could take advantage of the hole Stars have on the right. Overall, he's the definition of this category, NHL hopeful at best – probably a future AHLer. That's not a slight. The Texas Stars need good players, too.
Ayrton Martino
Martino is flashy and very skillful but his skating leaves something to desire. Think of him as a Stranges-lite. He will get time to work on that, as he's committed to another year at NCAA.
Jack Bar
I've considered drafting Jack Bar as a steal in a fifth round in 2021, as his draft profile was pretty enticing at that point. He could dance the blueline and shoot as well as hit and reminded me a bit of Stephen Johns, who was also developing at NCAA level. From this category of players, I have the highest hopes for him, actually.
Matthew Seminoff
Another player, who could be arguably considered as a steal, as he went only as a sixth rounder in this year's draft. He will probably get some playing time with Stankoven at Kamloops (considering Stankoven will not make the Stars) and could be a big factor in their eventual Memorial Cup participation. That could bode well for his further development, in which skating is the biggest question mark.
Honorable mentions:
Maxim Mayorov
This guy is the biggest question mark of all, but he's big and his numbers from Russia have been outstanding. That's really all we have at this point, so I couldn't really fit him into any of the categories right now.
Matt Murray
Murray has been excellent in the games he has played for the Texas Stars once he got his amateur tryout after his NCAA season has finished. His numbers have been very steady throughout university years, which is a good thing. He got an AHL deal for now, but that's probably because of the small sample size. That was also the reason why he isn't immediately in Category 2 or 3. If you ask me, he's that solution as a possible long-time Oettinger's backup.
George Fegaras
Interesting draftee from last year's draft who still has another year to play in the USHL before committing to NCAA for another 2-3 years. Long term project whose development curve could really become anything, as of now.
Jacob Holmes
I wouldn't want to forget about Holmes, who I'm really looking forward to seeing in Traverse City. His body of work hasn't really defined a somewhat clear career curve for me now, but that could change rather quickly this season. Stars will need to sign him by the end of this season and I could easily see him getting a pro contract.
Afterwords
The Stars prospect pool got significantly deeper and better over the last 3 or 4 years with currently 7 (at least in my opinion) surefire future NHL players on it. No wonder, they had been ranked pretty high among various prospect pool lists.
It's great we will get to see many of these prospects playing together in Victory Green already this week. I'm personally looking forward to almost every prospect and especially the two goaltenders in Matt Murray and Remi Poirier. Although the Traverse City tournament has historically been pretty tough for goalies, it will be great to finally see them again in action.
Same goes for skaters, as the combination of them has been probably the best accumulated talent worth in a decade. With the roster at hand, Stars should be considered as a must-watch.