Is it time to become worried about Jason Robertson situation?
Is it time to become worried about Jason Robertson situation?
The situation is pretty complicated and delicate, so the proper answer would probably be something along the lines: "Well yes, but actually no." I will explain why.
'Twas the night before training camp starts and while many of the Stars fans remained hopeful, Jim Nill brought the news everybody was fearing a bit on the inside: Jason Robertson will not be available for the start of the training camp. That has definitely raised some eyebrows, especially on the Twitterverse, but it is fair to point out, rightfully so.
Even though the anxiety level of a typical sports fan is probably somewhat higher than a regular person who's not into that sort of thing, I was still a bit surprised by the extent of some reactions.
Not because they were wrong to react that way, but mostly because we've come through the whole summer debating when Jason Robertson (and Jake Oettinger, for that matter) will be signed and for how much. Everybody had the start of the training camp as some sort of internal deadline, when they probably expected to have signed the pending RFA.
While it is a good checkpoint or rather important milestone, it's not remarkably unusual to see a star player not attend the first days of the training camp. In the last few years we've seen Mitch Marner miss the first day of training camp in 2019 for Toronto and more recently also Matt Barzal signing his bridge deal just 4 days before the shortened regular season started in 2021.
Negotiations with star players are generally tough, especially if they're not on the same page regarding the desired outcome. They are even tougher, if the team's back in question is pushed against a salary cap wall. We've discussed aplenty how I think Jim Nill is supposed to get rid of some unnecessary cap weight but he's been so far pretty reluctant to do so.
There are some teams that have openly expressed their openness to facilitate such a trade.
When asked, Jim Nill didn't really budge to a journalist question on that. He said that “they're pretty comfortable with the cap in all of the situations.”
While it may be just partially true, I take this as a negotiating tactic versus other teams like Chicago and also versus Jason Robertson's camp. Almost none of the teams should be comfortable with the cap in ALL of the situations, especially not this current Dallas Stars team that has plenty of questionable contracts on its books and because of that was forced to lose a major free agent this summer in the process.
So there is definitely a validated level of fans' concern towards Jim Nill and their management of the cap, especially when only cap-shedding move this off-season has been Ben Bishop's trade to Buffalo, which didn't really mean anything apart from his current inability to be around Stars team and a bit more effectivity in not using LTIR on his contract.
Given their small flexibility with the cap, they haven't been able to strike a deal with Jason Robertson. But that's just one side of the coin. Robertson's production has been really other-wordly when compared with similar players in his age.
I'll shamelessly plug my good friend's David Castillo's comparables from his article for the D-Magazine. You can read his whole piece here, I highly recommend it.
If the negotiation truly was just a choice between a proclaimed 3-year bridge deal and 8-year long term deal, my guess is the deal would be already done. As you can see, almost none of the deals in the comparables are bridges, maybe with the sole exception of Patrik Laine, one of the most streakiest players of that bunch.
And while that is true, apart from Tarasenko from way back in 2015, there are really no 8-year deals either. I've read some arguments that Robertson's camp is after a big long-term contract while Stars brass only want to give him a bridge deal with a lower AAV.
I think the logic should be actually opposite.
It should be in Stars best interest to lock the potential of Robertson for a longest term possible. His line of work and level of play merits trust that he can replicate it for the next 7 or 8 years without any problems at all. He has been able to perform and produce at every level of his career so far, even the NHL, where he even out produced players like Marner or Kaprizov within a rather stingier offensive system that they endured.
While that 3-year bridge deal is enticing from AAV perspective, if the Stars really wanted to sign a short term with Robertson, I'd figured his camp would already be down to that, same as Jake Oettinger eventually was. There is literally no reason to think he will not be able to reproduce at a similar level in the NHL in the next three years and his value might skyrocket within that time frame, as well.
After that we might encounter an unfrozen salary cap and Robertson's cap could very well double and not only that. The next big deal would take him all the way until he's 34 or 35 while if signing a long-term deal now, it will only take him to his early thirties.
Now tell me again, why should his camp strive for a long-term deal now?
Only valid argument is, in the NHL nothing is certain and you're basically one bad injury from ending your career.
From a point of maximizing value and income for the player, his best interest should actually be signing a mid-term deal (4 to 6 years) at a cap hit nearing 9 or 9.5 million. Basically the deal his rival Kirill Kaprizov signed last year. After that, he'll be 28 or 29 years old and in the best position to cash in, just like players like Jonathan Huberdau or Johnny Gaudreau did this summer, only with even bigger payday.
So, now you get why this negotiation is so delicate and not really black and white, with just 2 options on the table. I'm not on either side really, but rather trying to paint a full picture, instead of just leaning one way or another.
While it's easy to blame the management for not being able to sign Robertson to a simple 8x8 type of a deal, the reality is there probably isn't that type of contract in the stars, quite literally. If it would, Robertson would be lacing them up with fellow teammates this morning. The only thing the management is partly to blame is not being able to sign Robertson proactively last summer, when he became eligible to do so. It's a bit more risky approach but with cap saving being the mantra, probably would've been praised by everybody by now.
And yes, they have had now more than 14 months to get the deal done, so I get being a little antsy about the whole thing.
Luckily for Stars fans, the timeframe is still acceptable for both sides to negotiate. And there are other pressure points to consider, for example a new coach, to whom you promised many things when negotiating in late spring, including the ability to coach the best players.
This isn't just a slight hint, it's as open a request as a new coach can possibly make to sign Jason Robertson and not to make enemies in the management group just yet. That's why I think there's still time not to be overly worried that Jason Robertson is still not signed by the Stars, as of this morning, the first day of the training camp in 2022.
I honestly don't see a reason to not get anything done before a season starts, because it just isn't in anybody's interest.
Jason Robertson is going to make a lot of money, regardless. Be it some sort of upgraded Elias Petterson bridge deal, Mikko Rantanen kind of deal or some unprecedented long-term deal for a player of his age.
And while the process to get there is slightly worrisome, I believe there's still time to be calm about the negotiations and not to jump to quick and easy conclusions. I have set my internal deadline to become worried once we flip the calendars to October.
But I'd wager a lot of money we will see a deal before that.