My (bold?) Round 1 NHL 2022 Playoff Predictions
I saw so many brackets on my Twitter timeline and said: "I want to be wrong as well". So here goes my 2022 NHL Playoff Bracket Prediction. With a little twist.
Mostly what I saw was some combination of Colorado, Toronto and Florida appearing in the Stanley Cup Finals and after a quite some time, it became rather boring. I mean, yeah - those are the teams in best position to enter the playoffs, sure.
However, once the puck drops, every prediction evaporates and becomes nothing. Just look at the scary injury Leafs’ center John Tavares had in Game 1, Round 1 against the Montreal Canadiens. That’s a potential series changer right there. Yes, the Leafs managed to build up a 3-1 lead but rather typically, could not convert that into a series win once again.
9 out of 10 hockey writers, analysts and what-have-you felt Leafs would beat the Canadiens and the Oilers or the Jets without issues to reach at least Conference Final. They were THE BETTER TEAM, right until they weren’t.
That’s why I look at some model predictions and projections with a grain of salt. Sure, there’re some great tools to analyze matchups and I love reading and digging into many of them. In hockey though, you’re one-freaking-hot-goalie-for-2-or-3-games away from planning your annual golf trip a bit prematurely.
So without further ado, I will go series by series and for sure “not seeing the forest for the trees situation” will not happen to me. Haha, yeah right.
(All series probabilites are brought to you by Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman from The Athletic. Give it a subsciribe if you didn’t already and support quality sports journalism.)
(1st Atlantic) Florida Panthers - Washington Capitals (2nd Wild Card)
Florida is the juggernaut here and Washington is very much in trouble if Alex Ovechkin injury bothers him in the playoffs. But you know the saying, Russian Machine Never Breaks, well maybe until it faces the Ukrainian tractor it doesn’t.
Panthers are the tractor here and I don’t see Capitals winning more than 2 games here. The only question mark I have in the Panthers team is the net, so we will see how that unfolds for them. It should be enough to beat the Caps, though.
Possible surprise-o-meter: 2/10. Nothing to be excited about.
Panthers in 5 or 6.
(2nd Atlantic) Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd Atlantic)
Leafs are favorites coming into Round 1 of the playoff series? What could possibly go wrong? *Insert wondering Jeremy Clarkson’s face*
The only thing ahead of them, the reigning back-to-back Stanley Cup champions, no less. Tampa is a tricky animal. They couldn’t be bothered in the regular season, it was so obvious and they played like it. They knew it’ll be tough go in the Atlantic part of the playoffs so it doesn’t really matter in what order you face Toronto, Boston or Florida.
If this series doesn’t go into seven games though, I don’t know what will. Leafs in Round 1, Game 7 situation? My gut says the Leafs could finally do it. My head says Tampa has at least one more good run in them. For me it’s a coin toss, really.
Possible surprise-o-meter: 0/10. Nothing will surprise me here. Every scenario is possible.
Call it a Vasilevskiy factor, Tampa in 7.
(1st Metro) Carolina Hurricanes - Boston Bruins (1st Wild Card)
Well would you look at that? If the series before was coin toss for me, this is a coin toss for the prediction model. A LOT will depend on Carolina goalies and their health situation. Signing injury-prone Andersen and Raanta as you tandem, you might expect coming into situation like this.
On the other hand is an always formidable Bruins squad, which may be one centre away from being considered elite. They also have their own goalie controversy in which they are not exactly sure who to start and when. Honestly, this series may feature 4 or 5 different goalies and I’m all here for it.
Possible Suprise-o-meter: 5/10. What is even considered a surprise here? Kochetkov leading Canes to a sweep? Yeah okay, that might do it.
Bruins in 7.
(2nd Metro) New York Rangers - Pittsburgh Penguins (3rd Metro)
Wow, these models are way brighter than I give them credit for! I was feeling picking Penguins might be a very big “suprise-o-meter” call but it seems it will not come as a surprise as much.
Rangers have a MVP caliber goalie in Igor Shesterkin and Penguins have not. That could be the difference and you could say Rangers in 5, based on how their season went. Penguins however have, what you might call, the last shot for the current core of Crosby-Malkin-Letang.
Yes, it seems every year people call it their last shot, but this really feels like it is the one. It won’t be enough for them to hoist the cup, no. To beat the Rangers? Yeah, very possible. I love Rangers’s future - just not this year.
Possible suprise-o-meter: 7/10. Penguins winning might still surprise some.
Penguins in 6.
(1st Central) Colorado Avalanche - Nashville Predators (2nd Wild Card)
Call me crazy but I can see Predators surprising the Avs for a game or two. Rittich is the kind of goalie that either has 95.5 save percentage or 85.5. Nothing in between. Without Juuse Saros it’s almost impossible, but there’s a chance.
Avalanche are the juggernaut of the West and rightfully so. The feeling of gripping the sticks too tight in the playoffs is visible on them though. Let’s see if they can overcome it this year. They have been preparing for this from last series loss against Vegas and that might be a good or a bad thing.
Possible surprise-o-meter: 4/10. The Avs are still the Avs, though.
Avalanche in 6.
(2nd Central) Minnesota Wild - St. Louis Blues (3rd Central)
Now we’re talking. This could be the best playoff series of them all. I may have what possibly nobody else has and that’s a West Coast bias. No more Minnesota Mild, the Wild are genuinely a fun team. How have the times changed, right?? It feels like St. Louis is a great playoff performer, except few exceptions, like being swept by the Avalanche last year.
The Wild might have an advantage on paper in the crucial position - the net. The Blues are deeper in the middle and I just feel like as they can dance with the Wild, they can also beat the Wild.
Sorry, Flower.
Possible suprise-o-meter: 9/10
Blues in 6 or 7.
(1st Pacific) Calgary Flames - Dallas Stars (1st Wild Card)
As a Stars fan, I will try to be as unbiased as possible here. The Stars were proclaiming all year long that they are built for the playoffs. Well, now it’s time to put your money where your mouth is. You couldn’t ask for a better draw than a hungry, deep and overall a great Flames team, who is coming here for a revenge from the bubble.
If the Stars manage to find an another gear, yeah sure, they can upset the Flames. Is it likely though? They enter the series as the only team in the playoffs with a negative goal differential from the regular season. Remember the beginning of the article? That was also the Montreal Canadiens last year and look what it meant in the playoffs. Nothing.
I just think Darryl Sutter will prepare this Flames team a whole lot better and will be ready for what the Stars have to offer. It probably won’t be easy, but realistically, only scenario where the Flames lose this series is if it goes to Game 7. That said, look at my prediction. Yeah, it doesn’t make sense. Neither does the NHL.
Possible suprise-o-meter: 6/10.
Calgary in 6 or 7.
(2nd Pacific) Edmonton Oilers - Los Angeles Kings (3rd Pacific)
Can Phillip Danault and Anze Kopitar stop the McDavid/Draisaitl duo? That’s the question. Near 70-30 split is far from the most lopsided series of the first round, however many hockey people see this match-up as an easy one for the Oilers.
Yeah, on paper it is, which is why I wanted my Stars to enter a Pacific bracket. Not to avoid Avalanche, but to avoid Blues/Wild winner in a potential Round 2 and instead face a winner of this series. Not a disrespect, just pure numbers. One can dream.
That being said, I’m really looking forward to see what this young, dynamic Kings team can do. Don’t underestimate the power of playing for Dustin Brown. I’m certainly not doing that.
Possible suprise-o-meter: 9/10
Kings in 7.
Well, there we go. If my predictions hold water, we could see these matchups in the second round.
Florida - Tampa Bay
Boston - PittsburghColorado - St.Louis
Calgary - Los Angeles
For the sake of my mental well-being and your time, I won’t go deeper into that. I’m just looking forward to revisiting this after the first round is done and see how wrong it potentially could be. It’s fun!
And that’s what it supposed to be, all the way. FUN. Sports are meant to be fun. That’s why the Stanley Cup Playoffs is arguably the best competition in the sports.