My confidence in Jim Nill is wavering - here's why
I think in vacuum, Jim Nill is a very good general manager. Unfortunately for him, hockey isn't played in vacuum and he's prone to the mistakes people make when they overstay their tenure.
Already back in May, I had just analyzed Jim Nill’s tenure as a Stars GM, focusing mostly on whether he should continue with the Dallas Stars as their general manager. I came to the conclusion that he in fact deserves another shot, mainly because of the stellar drafting in recent years.
Another fact supporting this argument was that new coach – Pete DeBoer, at that time still a free agent – will only be Nill’s third actual hire and the circumstances with Hitchcock and Bowness were less than ideal for a GM to be in. One, you have your owner meddling in the hire and the other is just righting the ship after your hire was let go due to addiction issues.
Three months later and I’m not that convinced.
It’s not about the survey that The Athletic posted yesterday (photo below), in which Jim Nill ranks 24th in his own fan base rating and 22nd in other fanbases rating and it’s literally “only” drafting that’s saving his overall mark from being a bottom feeder.
I think the reasons I’m about to offer don’t really differ from other fans perspective on him, especially lately.
So let me explain the shift in my attitude towards Jim Nill, a person who I really respect from a hockey experience perspective.
He is not proactive enough
One of the main signs of a great manager is being proactive, anticipating potential problems and when they occur, proper handling is required. I’ve just recently seen a great analysis on Why Release Clauses are actually good in football (or soccer) and it struck me, how more wild football off-season is in comparison to hockey.
In football, you have summer and winter transfer windows. During that time, teams can bid offers to your players and sometimes, having a release clause is a good thing, because it can prepare you for possible departure of a given player in advance. For example, Erling Haaland had a release clause in Borussia Dortmund active for 2022 onwards with the fee being 60 million euros.
Dortmund knew that once the conditions of the release clause were met, they’d need to let Haaland go, as they did – to Manchester City. The good thing about it is they could’ve prepared in advance, as they knew a move was probably coming and already knew what the price would be – therefore could project their possible spending for a replacing striker. If the release clause is missing, things could go awry for the team trying to negotiate the highest possible transfer fee.
You can watch the full video here, in case you are interested.
In hockey, mostly thanks to the current CBA, things are even more clear. It was evident after the shortened 2021 season that Jason Robertson and John Klingberg will need new deals in a year. You have clear schedules for when players are becoming either RFAs or UFAs.
A proactive manager could assess the situation at hand and analyze Robertson’s career trajectory – thus offering extension a year earlier. That contract could’ve come at much lesser value than what Robertson is demanding now.
On the other hand, you really cannot blame Jim Nill for not extending Jake Oettinger sooner, a) because Oettinger didn’t really have the track record that Robertson had and b) nobody could have foreseen the Calgary series, which rocketed his value immensely.
In hindsight, he could’ve offered Oettinger a bridge deal throughout the season, but opted to wait how he will perform in playoffs. And did he ever.
Due to lack of his proactivity in either one of his star RFAs – John Klingberg couldn’t have been offered a proper contract that reflects how much the team needed him in the transition game as well as in the locker room. It all may be just a negotiating tactic from Nill, but not talking with either Oettinger or Klingberg camp when possibly truly doesn’t reflect that good on a manager.
It is really a night and day from the times Nill was actually rated as a “trying too hard” general manager by Greg Wishinski.
Nowadays, he’s just the captain that wants to get the ship to the harbor safely with the least amount of effort given.
That’s why I really think he would be a great President of Hockey Operations, while a younger and fresher general manager could take over and try to be more proactive in roster building of the Dallas Stars.
He’s too attached to his own guys and for the wrong reasons mostly
You know that after 9 years at the helm, certain players become favorites and overall universally more liked by the front office than the others. It’s good to have favorites and all, I just think the front office is picking the wrong guys.
It’s easy to say they all love Oettinger, Hintz, Heiskanen, Robertson or even younger guns like Dellandrea or Harley, so that they won’t trade those under (almost) any circumstances. However, they are also keen on so-called role players, like Radek Faksa, Luke Glendening, Esa Lindell or Ryan Suter way too much, especially when you consider the cap hit they’re accounted for.
Let’s focus more on home-grown talent, Radek Faksa and Esa Lindell, both drafted in 2012 NHL Draft. Together they count for more than 9 million against the cap with the results being very questionable. My fellow Stars scriber and friend, if I can call him that (I hope we’re friends at this point, David!), David Castillo analyzed both players and what they bring to the table on his own substack, which you should definitely subscribe to, if you haven’t.
The combined cap hit when compared to on-ice performances is the problem here with both players. Radek Faksa is highly replaceable with league minimum making player whereas Esa Lindell is making way too much money just to be carried by – you guessed it, John Klingberg – a player who the Stars front office didn’t value enough but the one who actually make the pairing work, just when you look at the numbers.
Attachment to your guys is expected at some point of your tenure, but when it hamstrings your overall ability to improve the roster, because you are not keen on moving those guys – that’s exactly when I start to feel a change should be on the horizon.
Both of those guys are big, strong who play the right way, according to Jim Nill, probably. And while he may genuinely believe it, it’s not the recipe for continual success, especially when you consider both of those guys are signed all the way through 2025.
I’m not calling for an organizational overhaul, not even close. I just think it’s natural even for Jim Nill to progress to a role where he could actually excel at and let somebody more progressive take over as a new general manager, while having that continuity in the process.
I’ve been manifesting that I really see Dallas Stars as a possible contenders from 2024 onwards, even with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin still on the books, but those little tweaks with role players should happen to make it all possible. I’m all for a former star like Jamie Benn becoming a role player, a role in which he should excel at, purely analytically speaking.
I just think current role players on the team need an overhaul for the team to become what they want it to become. And you can only do that if you’re proactive and not too attached to what they have brought to you in the past.
Especially, if it really isn’t that much.