My mid-summer Dallas Stars thoughts

Dallas Stars key riddles for their summer agenda remain unresolved. Can we expect more reinforcement for the current roster? And is this really a Miro Heiskanen's team now? Let's dig in.

So far the Dallas Stars offseason has been apart from one or two flashes pretty uneventful. 

The biggest move was probably the signing of one Mason Marchment — as a last-minute steal job from Carolina Hurricanes who were on track to sign him before he instead elected for a more familiar surroundings. 

Jim Nill did the bare minimum, as he took care of business with non problematic deals like Riley Tufte, Nick Caamano, Marian Studenic and others. He also signed Denis Gurianov to his qualifying offer and basically replaced John Klingberg with a big question mark in Colin Miller, probably thinking Thomas Harley is poised to step up and provide necessary scoring touch from the blueline they will definitely need. 

But the two biggest names remain unsigned. 

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What is the holdup in Robertson & Oettinger next deals? 

It’s August already and since Ben Gleason signed a one-year deal on Friday, Stars only have two players unsigned. Unfortunately for them, the duo in question is your core for many years to come and ideally you’d like them both to have signed by this time. and ideally long-term. That’s where things get a little tricky, though. 

We’ve been playing with cap possibilities since Stars playoff exit in May and while bridge contracts for both have been appealing for a considerable while, I’m now fully predicting one of the young guns signing a long-term contract – and that’s exactly what may be causing prolongement of the negotiations, I’d assume. 

If I were to pick one who I’d like to lock long-term, it would definitely be Jason Robertson. I get that many Stars fans would like to sign him for 8 years – maximum term – but here are the reasons I really don’t see that happening. 

He’s 23 years old now, which means he would be 31 when that deal is over and having less chances to go sign his second big ticket contract than if he were 29 years old, let’s say. 

His agent is probably pushing for this deal to be around 4 or 5 years, which is the worst case scenario for the Stars, because it would lead him directly onto the unrestricted waters of free agency. The Dallas Stars are in my opinion pretty keen to sign him for 7 or 8 years and have him locked up for the whole duration of his prime. 

Evolving Hockey projects his next contract to be worth 7.9 million in AAV for 6 years in term, while almost touching the 9 million barrier when assuming he’d sign for the maximum term, 8 years. Here’s the full projection: 

My sweet spot for Jason Robertson would be a deal for 7 years, with the AAV similar to Kevin Fiala’s – just a smidge under 8 million dollars in AAV – a contract that would buy some years of unrestricted free agency while also giving him chance to cash in another big ticket when he’s in his prime, just before hitting 30 year old mark. 

Projection: 7 years, 7.857 million in AAV, contract worth 55 million in total. 

Jake Oettinger is a different case, as he has only one full season under his belt – albeit with masterclass playoff performance, which is in stark contrast to Robertson’s doing in post-season against Calgary. 

Goalies are pretty hard to predict, but I’m sure if he wouldn’t have that heroic series, he’d be already signed & happy. Those mastodont saves literally made him a million bucks more per year, if not even million and a half. He’s definitely going to be compensated gracefully, the thing is the term. 

I think Stars management would be remiss if they didn’t take advantage of Jamie Benn’s and Esa Lindell’s deal expiring in 2025. They should aim for that summer with Oettinger’s raise in the back of their minds and have a long-term cap plan set in stone. 

If you are betting long-term on Jason Robertson you really have to bridge Jake Oettinger, unless another cap-shedding move presents itself. That’s why I believe 3 years are ideal for him and the AAV is really what’s left after signing Robertson to the best possible deal for both sides, which is around 4.2 million. Ideally, you’d like to have some few hundred dollars space and not be touching the upper limit with your whole cap body. 

Projection: 3 years, 4 million in AAV, contract worth 12 million in total. 

This would give you a 22-man roster with exactly $240,501 in cap space which could look like this: 

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Is there actually space for other reinforcements? 

In the scenario outlined above, Riley Tufte was waived before the season started and neither Wyatt Johnston or Mavrik Bourque were not counted as options here, which could certainly change and it would make me very satisfied. 

There are still pieces on this roster that I would like to move, namely: 

Joel Kiviranta – ideally replace him with one of two available Rileys, either Tufte or Damiani.

Radek Faksa – ideally replace him with Wyatt Johnston and let Ty Dellandrea play more like 3C, who is capable of playdriving, which Radek unfortunately is just not.

And of course…

Anton Khudobin, who is not exactly on the roster but still accounts for 2.208 million in cap. 

Shedding those pieces, while replacing them internally would provide you with almost 4.8 million in additional cap space, which you could then use either with attracting disheartened superstars like Patrick Kane (or Toews, for that matter? No, Kane, definitely Kane.) to boost your playoff chances. 

Another option, which I prefer more to be quite honest, is to be smart with it and capitalize on the free agent market next summer, which could be pretty interesting. 

There is also a way to think a bit boldly and use let’s say 2.208 million in Khudobin’s buried contract which at this point just takes space from your cap and you could use the money elsewhere. Yes, there is a cost attached to it. If Arizona or Anaheim should take the final year of his contract, you’d definitely need to pay a 3rd or a 4th round draft pick to entice them a bit. 

And what for? Well. With the created space you could get very interesting middle 6 forward Sonny Milano, who’s actually projected just outside Top 10 in Projected 5v5 Assist Rate per 60 minutes by JFresh Hockey. I’d also encourage you to look at the names below him.

Yes, it’s only a projection but wouldn’t this playmaking ability play nicely for a forward group chronically unable to create offense in the last 3 or so years? There are also other teams that would like to have him, as my friend Sam Tirpak, noted Toronto Maple Leafs fan recently pointed out in his own substack.

Sonny Milano: Ideal fit for Leafs? I believe so

Evolving Hockey projects Sonny Milano to fetch a 2 year deal worth around 1.9 million dollars in AAV. I wouldn’t be afraid to offer him around a 2.5 million deal if you manage to get Khudobin moved elsewhere. 

Think of it this way.

Wouldn’t you want Sonny Milano for a 4th, or even a 3rd round pick? Yes, of course you would. That’s why I imagine that as a trade of some sort, where a pick is a price for Arizona (or Anaheim for that matter) to take Khudobin from your hands which essentially frees up space to sign a useful guy like Sonny Milano definitely is. Easy. 

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Is this Miro Heiskanen’s team now? 

Sean Shapiro @seanshapiro

@bmcghee03 I don’t see it. Stars are ready to let it be Heiskanen’s team and Klingberg’s defensive game has waned too much for their liking

Former Stars beat writer Sean Shapiro tweeted that Dallas is now fully ready to let itself be Heiskanen’s team. If that’s the case, Heiskanen will be responsible for the whole lotta heavy lifting – a thing he is definitely ready to do. The question is – wouldn’t it be ideal for your team to provide the best possible environment for your superstar to thrive in?

Heiskanen has been used as a super glue in the lineup and that’s a compliment to his abilities. If Dallas is indeed his team now, shouldn’t he be playing in his best suitable position and shouldn’t others accommodate his needs to be the best possible version of himself? 

So far, the Dallas Stars depth chart predicts that Heiskanen will be again asked to play on the right side, not because it’s the best option to maximize the lineup potential but because it’s the most palatable thing for the D-core Stars currently have. 

Yes, Scott White confirmed they are comfortable with Miro playing on both sides – and who wouldn’t be – but you really wouldn't see Cale Makar playing on the left side, even if Colorado would have 6 right-handed defensemen on their active roster. 

That’s why I’m not entirely on board with this being a Heiskanen team now – but I will be more than happy if I’m wrong on this. It’s a team mentality thing for me. 

Is Miro the best player the Stars currently have? Definitely. Just look at this: 

He’s the best puck mover on the team, but that’s while trying to save his D-partner more often than not and also trying to provide some offense from the blueline. I wonder what he could actually do, if he was partnered with some reliable force on the right side, like Mackenzie Weegar who could play to Heiskanen’s strengths rather than being saved from his own created chaos, like Jamie Oleksiak, Roman Polak or Ryan Suter very often have been. 

Amongst other things, this led me to believe 2022-23 is a transitional year. Dallas Stars currently are not a surefire playoff team, let alone a cup contender. But that’s not entirely a bad thing. Hear me out. 

You know you’re probably not winning a cup this year but you already have a very good, if not really a great core of Roope Hintz — Jason Robertson — Miro Heiskanen — Jake Oettinger established and providing more than a market value with their respective performances. 

You also have a very interesting young pipeline of talent slowly infusing into your lineup – Ty Dellandrea, Thomas Harley, Jacob Peterson or even Riley Damiani. 

But maybe most importantly and even more glamorous junior MVPs in Wyatt Johnston, Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankoven ready to flip the script and become contributors immediately rather than being marinated in the minors for a couple of years. 

This is a year of getting it all together, preparing for big things to come from 2023-24 onwards.

That’s why I’m okay with one more year of Miro playing on his off-side, while I definitely think they should not be afraid to try some new interesting line combinations and see what they can use, when it will actually matter, like pairing Heiskanen with Harley and let the explosions of offense begin.

It’s definitely Miro’s team now— just not for the right reasons. For the Stars to become perennial cup contenders, that approach should change.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not writing the Stars off that easily. I really believe in maximizing your roster’s potential at just the right time — and I just feel this season might not be it. 

Yet.