My NHL 2022 Playoffs Predictions - Division Finals Edition
Predicting Round 1 of Stanley Cup Playoffs was really fun and I was sometimes dead-on correct, so let's do it again!
To summarize the first round predictions, I was correct on picking the winner in 5 of the 8 series taking place last 14 days. However, I feel somewhat satisfied, because 2 of the incorrect picks went into Game 7, just as I predicted they will go. Only with different winner, so Kings and Bruins - you all owe me, and my bracket, one. Also, word on Penguins, genuinely believe they’d win in 6 if it weren’t for goalie troubles and Crosby’s injury. Yeah, I know. If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have Merry Christmas every day.
Florida - Washington 4-2
My prediction - Panthers in 5 or 6. Correct.
It wasn’t as smooth sailing as predicted and some games could go other way. Florida was just too deep for Washington to handle. The questions loom about the future of this Capitals franchise.
Toronto - Tampa Bay 3-4
My prediction - Tampa in 7. 100% correct.
I even called it a Vasilevskiy factor for Game 7, which was certainly the case. The Leafs were the only home team to lose Game 7 in this round. That’s the end of a good part of my bracket in the Eastern Conference, sadly.
Carolina - Boston 4-3
My prediction - Bruins in 7. 5% correct.
The only thing that was correct about this prediction was the amount of games it will go to. I questioned the depth of Carolina’s goaltending, but Antti Raanta’s play threw every worry out.
Rangers - Pittsburgh 4-3
My prediction - Penguins in 6. 0% correct.
This one I am most disappointed with. Penguins were on their way to close this one in 5 games, leading 2-0 midway through Game 5, only to lose Sidney Crosby, hope and everything else in the rest of the series.
Colorado - Nashville 4-0
My prediction - Avalanche in 6. Correct - but feels almost incorrect.
I gave Nashville better chances of stealing a game or two. They were really close in Game 2 but came out empty-handed. It was really a waste of eight days, as Darryl Sutter would put it. In fact, it was only 7 days - but let’s roll with the original quote.
Minnesota - St.Louis 2-4
My prediction - Blues in 6. 100% correct.
The depth of this Blues team should scare Colorado for the second round matchup. I gave the Wild advantage in net, but it was the other way around. Jordan Binnington came to the rescue after trailing 1-2 in the series.
Calgary - Dallas 4-3
My prediction - Flames in 7. 100% correct.
I wish I was incorrect here, but I know the Stars team all too well. Massive respect to Calgary on the way they play throughout the entire series. Every second of play was intense.
Edmonton - Los Angeles 4-3
My prediction - Kings in 7. 5% correct.
Again, number of games - bingo. Kings also led 3-2 in the series. Other than that, McDavid & company were just too much for this young LA team. The future is bright for them, though.
What I like about the current playoff format is the amount of great series we’ve had in the first round only. The other good thing are the divisional rivalries. Since Calgary avoided Game 7 loss against Dallas, we now have 4 clear divisional finals as a result. (All series probabilites are brought to you by Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman from The Athletic. Give it a subsciribe if you didn’t already and support quality sports journalism.)
Let’s go through the predictions then:
Atlantic Division Final
Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Florida was tested properly against the Washington Capitals but managed to find a way through. Tampa Bay was almost crushed by the Maple Leafs, only to advance by the slightest of margins, but visibly shaken. It was probably the toughest series this Lightning core has faced and they already have 2 Stanley Cups attached to their names.
That’s why I am leaning toward Panthers here. They are definitely here and we can say, the Cats are hungry. They also went through the inevitable series loss before win against the Lightning last year. Tampa will probably miss their playoffs skater MVP, Braden Point. I just don’t see how Tampa could survive another thriller. Only hope the Lightning have is in the net. We’ll see how much that’ll do for them.
Prediction: Panthers in 6.
Metropolitan Division Final
Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers
Carolina is the odds favorite here and it’s also understandable why. Even though both teams went into seven games the round earlies, the Hurricanes seemed like much more composed and overall deeper team than the Rangers. Not that the Rangers will be an easy out here, absolutely not.
They have the better goalie here and that’s very important in hockey. Heavy reliance on goalie is not a successful thing in the long-run, as evidenced by the crushing loss for Jake Oettinger vs Flames. Rangers have a solid chance to win if Shesterkin stands on his head. Antti Raanta is a very good goalie too and that’ll probably be enough for Carolina to advance into the next round.
Prediction: Hurricanes in 6.
Central Division Final
Colorado Avalanche vs St.Louis Blues
The fact that this series is going to be intense was evident already during the regular season. The Blues will try to get their revenge after last year’s sweep and the Avalanche will try to finally break through the gates of the second round. It will be mostly about Avalanche’s stars trying to impose their play on Blues’s depth.
Cale Makar has been fantastic in round one and his team had all the time in the world to come out blazing in the first game of this series. Blues team faced the tougher test though, overcoming the dangerous Minnesota Wild.
Since the beginning of the playoffs, I have this good feeling about the St.Louis Blues, opposite to what the prediction model at The Athletic thinks. The key here will be the play of Jordan Binnington and possibly even Ville Husso. I say they advance.
Prediction: Blues in 7.
Pacific Divison Final
Calgary Flames vs Edmonton Oilers
Even though the Dallas Stars were a handful of points behind the Oilers after the regular season, I’d say that was the bigger test for the Flames team that this second round match up. The Battle of Alberta will certainly be eventful and crazy, that’s guaranteed. We may also get another round of Matthew Tkachuk vs Zach Kassian, if we’re lucky.
However, luckily for the Flames, they won’t have to face Jake Oettinger in this round. They may be even surprised when they shoot the puck against Mike Smith — it will go in much easier than a round before!
Yes, Edmonton has McDavid, Draisaitl and resurgent Kane. The Flames have Darryl Sutter and he’s just the man to smother their offense into nothing.
Prediction: Flames in 5.
Well, there we go. Looking at the probabilities along with other experts’ predictions, it seems like a common consensus that Florida (yes, even over Tampa), Carolina and Calgary probably make it. Many people favor Colorado and I just think we are due for one surprise series - which bodes well for my St.Louis pick. If my predictions hold water, we could see these matchups in the Conference Finals.
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes
Calgary Flames vs St.Louis Blues
There’s one Canadian team and one team from Florida guaranteed to make a Western Conference final. I’m looking forward to revisiting this again after the second round is done and see how wrong it potentially could be. It’s fun!
Periodic disclaimer: that’s what it supposed to be, all the way. FUN. Sports are meant to be fun. That’s why the Stanley Cup Playoffs is arguably the best competition in the sports, even though your — or mine — favorite team was ousted in gutting fashion.