NHL Draft Lottery is not the fun event it once was
New Jersey lucking out (again) even after lottery adjustments with some potential fits for early pickers from a non-scout
Edmonton Oilers winning the NHL Draft Lottery three times in a row (2010-2012) and then once again in the McDavid draft in 2015 definitely put some bees in NHL Board of Directors’ bonnet. There was a joke to be made every step of the way about how the NHL Draft Lottery is rigged for the Alberta team, only for us to realize it was not about them. It was about Taylor Hall, of course.
Going back to the famous Taylor vs Tyler draft, the destiny would have it that Taylor Hall will be drafted first by the Edmonton Oilers in 2010 and accompany the team with some sheer luck to win the lottery 3 more times. He was very effective in hiding the fact it was all his doing, thanks to which the hockey gods decided Edmonton should win the lottery when he’s around and pick first in the draft all along.
The secret was broken when Peter Chiarelli brokered a trade with New Jersey Devils, the famous 1 for 1 exchange, to acquire Adam Larsson straight-up for Taylor Hall in the summer of 2016.
The Devils would go on to win the lottery in 2017 and 2019, picking Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes in the process. Can you image they traded their lucky charm away? The part about hockey gods is a joke, of course — it’s a nice coincidence and Taylor Hall even admitted he sees himself as a “lucky charm” when it comes to the draft lottery in 2019 on Twitter.
Maybe that was the reason it charm stopped working. He’s disappointed the hockey gods by shedding some light on the spell. Okay, we can stop now.
The point I’m trying to make is that even despite some uncharacteristic and very statistically unlikely things happening during lottery, NHL probably thought the system is flawed and some of the teams are somehow always on the lucky side of the events. You can also count the New York Rangers there.
That’s why they reverted the statistical odds back to the system where the bottom-feeders are more likely to win the lottery now, like it was before the 2015 change. I think that’s a big mistake going forward.
From 2000 until 2014, the team finishing dead-last in the regular season had a 25% chance of picking first. In 2015 they changed the percentages and the worst team in the league had a 20% chance of picking first, decreasing to only 18.5% in 2017. Colorado Avalanche became the first victim, famously dropping from No.1 to No.4, only to pick Cale Makar at fourth, who then became probably the best player from that draft class. Because of course he did.
Now, they did a U-turn on that and the Canadiens had a 25,5% chance of picking first according to NHL Tankathon. They were also assured they wouldn’t fall outside of the Top 3 — which is crucial especially for next year — considering the talent available. Until that point, the worst team could fall all the way to the fourth position and it since it sometimes happened, NHL got scared away.
It prevented a full-blown tanking shenanigans though which is really bad for the league parroting parity every step of the way. There may be a parity, but it’s among Top 15 teams as we see in very competitive first round of Stanley Cup Playoffs. Notice how I said 15 instead of 16 - yes, sorry Nashville.
There was a big gap in the East after the top eight teams and it was a reason why all teams that made playoffs from the East had 100+ points. They had a chance to feast more on teams like Montreal, Ottawa, Buffalo, Philadelphia, New Jersey and they took it.
The West wasn’t that much different but the gaps were a bit tighter there. There was at least some playoff race going with good teams like Vegas and Vancouver missing out on the postseason berth.
I really think you should always have good teams missing on playoffs — it adds to the drama, creates interesting storylines and more importantly, makes it symmetric and even. 32 teams in regular season. 16 teams made post-season and the other half can watch the draft lottery with anticipation and excitement.
Well, that could be true, if NHL didn’t prevent teams to rise more than 10 spots in the lottery, which is another bad call, if you ask for my take. It also shouldn’t be this complicated of a system as you’re also trying to make the lottery fun and exciting! Who cares if the 15th worst team who just barely missed playoffs lucks out and goes to pick second or even first overall? The chances of that happening are like 2 in 100.
As Scott Wheeler writes, “Whether you’re a casual or diehard hockey fan, not only did the lottery had less tension (without every team having a chance to move up) and excitement (just two lotteries in place of three), it also lacked the simplicity that any made-for-the-masses event should have as a prerequisite. You shouldn’t need to study for the lottery like it’s an exam in order to understand it. You should be able to turn to the person next to you on the couch and explain how it works quickly and painlessly, without several caveats (“but you can’t win it X amount of times in Y years” or “and you can only move up Z spots”) so that they both immediately understand it and will be interested in the outcome.”
Next year we await the Connor Bedard sweepstakes and, oh boy, there will be tanking. Because even if the worst team misses on picking first, they’d still have players like Matvei Michkov or Adam Fantilli available on board. That’s franchise players right there. And remember, mathematically, you just cannot drop out of the Top 3 if you finish last. So, congratulations Arizona, you are now guaranteed to pick one of these 3 guys I just mentioned. (Now watch them fight for the playoffs next ye … naah, I stand by this prediction.) You’re welcome for the jinx anyway, Coyotes fans.
It just takes away the excitement and adds more insurance if you are trying to be bad on purpose and takes the whole league back a decade, if not more. Remember, the league has a parity, supposedly by Gary Bettman. Well, not anymore.
As to results of this Draft Lottery, I am personally happy the Canadiens picks first. The draft is held in the Bell Centre and the atmosphere will be electric. I’m following this draft class since 2020 but I’m not a scout or anything close to it. I just digest the takes made some very competent people, read their assessments on key players and also watch some players by myself, if there’s a chance.
It’s very likely Montreal gets to pick Shane Wright creating a possible one-two punch with Nick Suzuki and I’m all here for it. If Juraj Slafkovsky has a great World Championship in Finland, things could get more interesting but I think even if the two are on the same level for scouts, they’ll lean to the center, therefore picking Wright.
I have Slafkovsky going second to the New Jersey Devils, another winners of this year’s lottery for a number of reasons. They’re already set on the center position with Hischier and Hughes and need some reinforcements on the wing and on the back end. Them having Hughes, Hischier, Mercer, Bratt, Sharangovich, Slafkovsky, Foote and Holtz in top 9 is just unfair. I could see them picking a right-handed D as well, as Simon Nemec and David Jiricek are available.
Arizona’s needs are clear, they need a center - and they get to get one here, with Logan Cooley available. For now it seems those 3 players are consensus picks among the draft experts and scouts, so I’m not adding anything new to the table. You shouldn’t draft to the needs you have now, you should always select the best player available and here you’re really doing both at the same time.
I have Seattle Kraken picking Simon Nemec though, as they’re really thin on the right-side of their D-core. They could go to David Jiricek as well, but overall I project Nemec to be a better all-around option for a building franchise.
After these 4 picks, we’re getting into “your guess is as good as mine” territory and I’ll let more qualified experts enjoy the predictions in the coming weeks.
I’ll deep dive more into the draft once more, mainly from a perspective of a Slovak hockey enthusiast and also as a Dallas Stars fan. This year is really a game changing time for the Slovak hockey in general, with top class talents like Juraj Slafkovsky, Simon Nemec but also Filip Mesar or Adam Sykora all invited to NHL Draft Combine and possibly taken in the first two rounds. Until then, then.