Should the Stars extend Jim Nill's contract?
Before looking for a new head coach, the Dallas Stars ownership group should analyze what are the next key steps in keeping the Dallas Stars franchise moving in the right direction.
One of the most important jobs in the current NHL franchise is definitely the position of a general manager. It’s the person responsible for the roster building as well as other key areas such as drafting & development and cap management. He (or she!) is selected mostly by the ownership group, which at the Dallas Stars is consisting of owner Tom Gagliardi, CEO Brad Alberts and Chairman Jim Lites.
Current GM of the Dallas Stars, Jim Nill, has a contract that expires after the next season - in 2023. He’s been Stars’ GM since 2013 and that’s a good sample size of evaluating how successful he’s actually been. During his tenure so far, he signed 190 players worth $874,602,188 in total, made 41 trades and drafted 63 players altogether. Let’s have a look at his work done so far and whether he's the right man to lead a search for the next coaching staff.
In his early years as a GM, a 5-year plan was in place to get the Dallas Stars from the bottom of NHL teams back in the contender fold while aiming for long-term success. The key to that always is drafting and developing your prospects well – as well as being bold but precise when it comes to trades and free agent signings.
We all know that Jim Nill’s era began with a splash - bringing in a veteran coach Lindy Ruff and trading for a franchise-center in the making - Tyler Seguin.
Back then, it was almost a guarantee that every summer, Jim Nill was about to make a significant trade to improve the current roster and he was very successful in it. He brought Jason Spezza in the summer of 2014 to solidify center position and allow Jamie Benn to play on wing full-time. One of his best trades in my opinion occurred in the summer of 2015, when he traded for Patrick Sharp and Stephen Johns from a cap-strapped Chicago Blackhawks while sending Trevor Daley and Ryan Garbutt the other way.
Following these moves was the 2015-16 season – which was as the most successful era the Dallas Stars team had since the 2005-06 with 50 wins while also playing very attractive, offensive-minded hockey featuring many highlight-reel plays mostly brought by Jim Nill’s new and shiny acquisitions. In Nill We Trust – was the echoing message around the majority of Stars fans and rightfully so.
He’s had his fingers in every key aspect of the team. The offense was led by Jamie Benn – who Nill made a captain immediately after he became a GM. Other key offensive players were his star acquisitions Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza and Patrick Sharp – while being supported by a young Swedish defenseman John Klingberg. Klingberg’s contract, which ends in a few weeks, is probably the best value deal Jim Nill has signed as a GM.
The main question marks and the biggest complaints about Nill’s work at the time was the inability to provide the team with better goaltending. The myriad of backups for Kari Lehtonen and the Antti Niemi signing all became bad decisions which ultimately led him to sign Ben Bishop in 2017 to a 6 year contract. Bishop provided Vezina worthy type of goaltending for 2 and a half seasons while his cap hit was at manageable 4.916 million.
Unfortunately for the Stars, the timing didn’t really work out well for Jim Nill when it comes to building an ultimate contender.
During the offensive years of Lindy Ruff - they lacked proper goaltending and better defensive structure. When they finally addressed the issue, they started lacking in the offensive department to be truly considered a contender. Now, the current roster is too reliant on having a great goaltending while not providing a solid defensive structure and their offensive touch is almost non-existent, barring a first line of Robertson - Hintz - Pavelski.
I personally feel the radical change for a defensive oriented coach in Ken Hitchcock in 2017 was a mistake – but it was not a mistake made by Jim Nill. The ownership forced their hand when hiring Hitchcock – an experiment which lasted only a year and it didn’t even get them into the playoffs.
What was his mistake is that he backed down from his vision of having an up-tempo team probably to appease the ownership and to be more successful in the playoffs. However, when you look at the 2015-16 run, it was not the up-tempo style of play that lost them a chance for a Stanley Cup. It was a shaky goaltending, full stop.
Jim Montgomery was supposed to be something in between both of the previous head coaches. He preached possession style of play while having a defensive structure in place. He could also rely on great goaltending of Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin, arguably one of the best goalie tandems in the league. He also inherited a young phenom named Miro Heiskanen, who was the best defenseman of the team and still only 19 years old.
He was an outside hire and had Montgomery more time with the Stars roster, I really feel he’d improve the team offensively to the point of contending for Stanley Cup on yearly basis. Montgomery's personal problems however forced Nill to replace him with Rick Bowness, right when the Stars were rolling in the 2019-20 season and slowly becoming the team Montgomery had envisioned them to be.
The fact that Bowness led the team to the unlikely Stanley Cup final ultimately made him a head coach for the next 2 years – during which we can say the Stars were a mediocre team at best. Their defensive structure was fading by the time and the offense was relying too much on power play and dump-and-chase style to be somewhat effective. For better or worse, Jim Nill’s vision has adapted to the head coach in place and so has the roster construction.
That’s why the next coaching hire is going to be crucial and probably career-defining for Jim Nill. Will he continue looking for a defensive-minded coach or actually realize the offensive potential this squad could have in the next 3 years and hire according to that?
Look at the top teams in the NHL - the Colorado Avalanches, the Tampa Bay Lightnings, hell even the Leafs or Panthers. They all have coaches that aren’t afraid to use their offensive talent at disposal while looking after defensive structure and also activating the D. Thanks to some shrewd drafting since 2017 I really think Jim Nill deserves at least one more chance to build a contenter – mainly because he already has the players to build around.
It was him and his scouting staff which brought Roope Hintz and Denis Gurianov in 2015. Since 2017, the drafting department has really stepped up. They selected Jacob Peterson and the mighty core trio of Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger in 2017. You can add to that Ty Dellandrea and Riley Damiani in 2018 and also Thomas Harley in 2019. These players are already potential roster locks for the upcoming season. Then we have junior stars like Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque ready to try and make the team out of the training camp and other interesting players like Antonio Stranges, Francisco Arcuri, Conner Roulette or Artem Grushnikov all drafted in 2020 and 2021 NHL entry drafts.
You could make the point that if it was not for the drafting, Jim Nill would probably be out on his way and the Stars would search not only for a new coach but also for a new GM.
But that’s essentially what makes the NHL teams so successful – the ability to find gems in later rounds of the draft like Tampa did and also the integration of such young talent to the team. I think the ownership truly believes that the Stars are on the cusp of being a contender for many years to come – and they also realize they have Jim Nill and his scouting staff to thank for that.
That’s why it will be vital a new coach will not only bring a clear vision of play but also the ability to work with the young players and make them stars in the process, pun intended.
To maximize the roster potential and squeeze everything out of it, the Stars will need to stay elite at cap management – which I think they are thanks to the meticulous work of Assistant General Manager Mark Janko. Yes, they do have some albatross contracts on the books, most notably in Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin.
Whereas there’s hope that Seguin can get back to being at least a 60-70 point scorer and second line center, things are a bit murkier in Benn's case. He’s been very unproductive but is still a team captain though, the heart and soul of the team and his big contract is up in 3 years. That is a manageable timeframe considering the expected amount of entry level contracts knocking on the door.
Given the fact that Nill's current deal expires next year – I really believe the Stars should clarify his future and sign him to a moderate extension before hiring a new coach.
I project a 2 year extension on top of his current contract which could theoretically be aligned with a contract for a new head coach possibly targeting a 3 year deal. That way you can really ensure the time frame is set for a coach and a GM to be on the same page.
Not to mention, some potential candidates could be discouraged by the fact that the current GM, the person responsible for hiring them, has only a year left on his deal. In his exit interview, Nill said he doesn't feel the pressure to solve the contract for him now but stressed he loves the city and I think is genuinely wants to be around to see the fruits of his scouting staff’s job over the last few years - thanks to which the franchise is in a seemingly good spot.
Yes, he hasn’t been the most active GM out there and had some signing blunders along the way. He’s been a steady presence and played his cards rather reactively than proactively. The only question mark I have with him is the ability to see his constructed roster in an objective way.
For example, does he believe a player like Radek Faksa, who has genuinely played below replacement level for a couple of years now, should be around along with a rather hefty contract or should he be rather replaced with much younger and more effective players that are up and coming? Or does he still see him as a key element moving forward?
Answers to questions like that should provide more clarity on whether Jim Nill does have what it takes to elevate this roster to another level. It may also depend on the opinions of a freshly hired coach – whose name is a mystery for now.
There are some ifs on the way, but if Jim Nill aligns with the modern vision of a new head coach once again, if he makes some adjustments to the roster and cuts some redundant baggage along the way – I’m ready to jump on his train once again. If he grows from the mistakes that were made and rises to the occasion of having an elite youth to build around, I truly believe he’s the right man to manage this Stars team.
If not, we have a difficult conversation ahead.
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