Dallas Stars pay a hefty price for Nils Lundkvist. Is he worth it?

Some initial reactions called this trade a fleece. But don't jump to the conclusions just yet. Let's peel some layers into why the Stars actually made this trade.

It was one of those nights where I just couldn't fall asleep early enough.

But once Shayna Goldman from The Athletic tweeted that Stars traded for Nils Lundkvist, I knew I would have to stay awake just to see what was going the other way. The trade was announced at 1:21 AM my time, to give you an idea. 

There was a considerable amount of fans who were willing to part ways with a guy like Ty Dellandrea to get Nils Lundkvist. I'd honestly get it – but there was still hope in me we'd rather trade an on-the-fence guy like Riley Tufte instead along with some mid round pick to get Lundkvist. 

So, once it was clear Jim Nill traded a conditional first round pick, which is Top 10 protected in 2023 – it seemed a bit hefty to me at a first glance. It's all about expectations and perception. Rangers fans would probably be happy if Chris Drury got a second round pick for Nils Lundkvist, as there was simply not a place for him on a loaded Rangers defense – especially a right side. And Jim Nill almost never trades his first round pick.

The full trade reads: 

DAL acquires D Nils Lundkvist from Rangers for Conditional 1st round pick in 2023 (Top 10 protected – if the pick is indeed Top 10 – then Rangers get unprotected 2024 1st round pick) and Conditional 4th round pick in 2025 (pick becomes 3rd round pick in 2025 if Lundkvist gets 55 points in the upcoming 2 seasons altogether). 

I'd wager Lundkvist will reach 55 points in the upcoming 2 seasons and Stars probably won't be among 10 worst teams in the NHL next season, especially with Lundkvist on board, therefore the trade basically is Nils Lundkvist for 2023 1st round pick and 2025 3rd round pick. 

Now the question remains. Is he worth it? 

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I mentioned expectation and perception. From the outside, Lundkvist was an outcast who openly asked for a trade out of New York. That Chris Drury got a first round pick for him is a win for Rangers itself along with a 3rd (or 4th) rounder for a good measure. I know for a fact that kind of package wasn't really expected from Rangers fans or scouts. He was perceived as attainable for the others yet we have to also consider other things. Need and fit. (And also the fact there are 30 other NHL teams possibly interested.)

The Stars needed a right-handed defenseman. Pretty badly, if you ask me. They also really needed somebody to be able to create offense from the blueline. Also, pretty badly, if you ask me. But don't ask me, solely. Look at what they did in the draft this summer. They drafted 3 (!) right-handed defensemen with their first four picks as well as a first rounder Lian Bichsel, more than capable of playing on the left, albeit left-handed. 

All the currently drafted right-handed defensemen are able to create offense from the blueline, especially Christian Kyrou, which he showcased pretty nicely at the Traverse City Prospect Tournament last week. But none of them is ready right now to play in the NHL, nor will be in the next 12 or 18 months. Nils Lundkvist is. Don't let the fact that he played only 25 games last season distract you. He's ready. 

He has been playing against men since 2019 and has been named the best defenseman in the entire SHL in 2021. He has also played for Sweden in World Championships that year, getting 5 assists to his name in only 3 games. And not only that. His game is perfectly suited for a modern NHL game – a place where teams want to drive offense from the blueline and have defensemen who can activate. That's also a style Pete DeBoer prefers. So there is also the fit. 

Nils Lundkvist is really deceptive with his offense creation in the offensive zone, be it with active give-and-go or a simple fake shot and ultra creative cross-seam passes. I'd argue his ceiling is above a guy like John Klingberg and is trending towards a guy like Adam Fox, to give you an idea. Not at Fox level per se, in terms of expectations but also not that far. Nils Lundkvist truly is one of hockey's most exciting prospects.

Now you probably get why Rangers didn't need Lundkvist – considering they also have their captain, Jacob Trouba and another young phenom, Braden Schneider playing on the right D. It's not a slight against Lundkvist – just a cruel reality of the NHL sometimes. 

I have to admit, Lundkvist openly claiming that he won't attend Rangers training camp fooled me a bit. I genuinely thought for some reason he's an RFA in need of a new contract. Once I saw he's still on his entry level deal for the next 2 seasons, I started to understand why the Stars were willing to part with a 2023 first round pick, which is widely considered as one of the best draft classes since 2015, if not the best. 

So, there was an expectation and a perception. On the other hand, a need and a fit.

The cap hit of Nils Lundkvist is a mere $925,000 for the next 2 seasons. That pushes the fit to a whole different level, basically overvaluing the first glance expectation on what a package should be for him in my view, personally. Stars have now replenished their prospect pipeline and while that first round pick may become even a star, they probably wouldn't be able to use the player until 2025 or later. Thus, the pick will become a Ranger, albeit not a Texas one. 

Would I be happier if the Stars instead traded a second round pick along with a prospect like Riley Tufte for Nils Lundkvist? You bet. Is there a chance this could become a win-win trade for both sides? Absolutely.

Put it this way, if the Stars end up paying that third round pick in 2025, chances are this trade was worth it for both sides.

So far, the trade seems more in favor of Rangers – as some quick reactions from fans even called it a fleece. I have to admit, initially the cost seemed a tad high. But once you peel all of the layers and get to the nitty-gritty, it gets more and more reasonable. Lundkvist should be able to play on the power-play but if needed, he's still a waiver-exempt. Maybe he won't be able to play Top 4 minutes immediately, but give him some time and he will get there. In my opinion, probably in the second half of this season. 

Stars defense got the exact infusion of talent they needed. Now it's up to the player and coaches to extract maximum out of it. I was a bit skeptical about their D-core coming into this season after losing John Klingberg, but this trade pulled me back in. Nils Lundkvist is not Klingberg, but he may become somebody even better. 

In Victory Green, he may even become Nils Lundkvist.