Summer thoughts on Jim Nill and why his job is still incomplete
Jim Nill has received many accolades this summer, as he should. His diligent managerial work has been the focal point of discussion not only in Dallas, but also NHL wide. Is it complete though?
Let's go right to the chase here.
Jim Nill is unequivocally the right man to manage and lead the Dallas Stars right now. He earned the right and among other accolades – like being the current general manager of the year in the entire NHL – also signed a two-year extension to his current contract, which was supposed to expire after this season.
He's reaping praises left and right and I couldn't stress this enough, rightfully so. On a broader scale, he managed multiple difficult things at one. First and foremost, he helped the Dallas Stars organization become relevant again, literally since Year 1 – by acquiring franchise center Tyler Seguin. Surrounding the flamboyant acquisition with the right talent and creating the initial team core of Seguin, Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza and John Klingberg was the springboard to being titled the “future of hockey” by none other by Ken Hitchcock, then coaching the division rival, St.Louis Blues.
Once the core got older, he helped revamp their impact by signing significant support pillars like Ben Bishop, Alexander Radulov or Joe Pavelski. And most recently, absolutely exchanging the running core of the team without missing a beat with Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger.
Achieving only that is no small feat.
Doing so with a feisty, hands-on owner who never wants to hear about rebuilding in a market he thinks couldn't handle one (I disagree here) is no small feat either. Pleasing the corporate executives in the short-term, while thinking long way ahead to the future is exactly what got Jim Nill into the comfortable position of being in charge – not only the Stars but also his future as well. Don't be surprised if you see him being promoted to the President of Hockey Operations even before his current deal is up.
Even this summer, he got rid of dead weight in Luke Glendening, Joel Kiviranta and replaced them with better (and cheaper!) alternatives. He also signed arguably the best free agent from the 2023 class in Matt Duchene. And sneakily, in my view, one of his best moves was managing to replace under-performing to the point of frustrating Denis Gurianov into very productive Evgeni Dadonov, who he then re-signed at a *very* moderate rate for two more years.
Just making sure that even if Jamie Benn doesn't replicate one of his best seasons this year, Dallas should still be well covered production-wise as a team.
So all in all, very, very good stuff, both historically and recently.
But still…there has to be some but, right?
While the Stars off-season is generally considered very good (some even thought it was the best in the league), I cannot shake off the feeling that it could've been better. Much better, even. You would notice that all of the moves from this summer mentioned above are forwards only. The job Jim Nill has done with this team still to me seems a bit … incomplete?
Now I know you can't build Rome in a day (trying to tell myself the same as a Roma fan myself), there is also an unwritten rule: you build your team in the summer, especially when you're a contending team, which the Dallas Stars are. Finally.
In the season, you merely tinker.
The non-address of Dallas's defensive situation
This is why I cannot get behind full marks on Dallas Stars offseason, however I try. You may seem to point that the Stars were Top 10 in goals against last season, as Jim Nill promptly did, at his season ending press conference.
You may also get your hopes up when you imagine what a full, 82-game season might bring from ever so strongly adapting Thomas Harley. Did I mention Nils Lundkvist yet? Same goes for him, although possibly to a lesser extent. How about a resurgence in play from Esa Lindell, who partially to his own fault, sticks out in the DeBoer defensive system like a sore thumb.
Jani Hakanpää will be coming from a knee surgery injury-free hopefully and Ryan Suter is … well, Ryan Suter. Among other things, his on-ice presence unfortunately deteriorates very quickly. He already needed to be defensively carried when the Stars signed him in 2021. Two years later, things are worse. Way worse.
But there also is one thing that lingers in my mind, when the thoughts get really dark: Can you imagine this defensive core without Miro Heiskanen?
Yeah, that's what I thought.
For your own mental sake, rather just don't do it. I did it and it led me to write this article. Dallas’s chances of topping the division, let alone conference are hanging on a thread, more precisely Miro Heiskanen’s health. One awkward collision and poof. Jim Nill’s house-of-cards defence construction based on mostly hopes and prayers would be stripped naked and many tough questions could arise.
Heiskanen has been relatively injury-free throughout his career so far but even if he starts to feel any kind of discomfort in any part of his body, the whole city of Dallas should be on high alert. We've seen what could happen without him.
Bottom line, I wouldn't want to take any of the praise received away from Jim Nill. After and above all, he's also a very good human being. And what may be considered as his biggest strength, most importantly when luring lurking free agents in summer, could also be seen as his biggest weakness.
Couldn't help but bring on The Office reference which suits perfectly.
Dallas Stars will be again operating with a really tight salary cap, a situation Jim Nill has at his hands by his doing only.
Yes, it's actually wise to spend right to the cap, because it maximizes the chances of putting up the strongest roster possible. Well, theoretically.
That applies when all of the roster slots are filled with the best options possible, or at least available. Maximizing the roster potential is a science, because it's not only *how* you fill out the roster spots, it's also *how much* you spend doing so in every position.
It may be even wiser not to surround yourself (willingly) with the type of deals that may not age well, as unfortunately Jim Nill has done and it's exactly what's holding him away from being able to shop adequately, not just opportunistically.
Take it this way: What's the ideal contract for a fourth-line center designated to kill penalties? I'd argue no more than 1.5 million dollars in AAV. The Stars are paying double that amount and then some for Radek Faksa for this coming season and the season after.
What's the ideal contract for a 39-year old defenseman who is still able to keep up with NHL level players, albeit preferably in a third pairing role? You could say around a million dollars, or basically what Mark Giordano was offered in Toronto, before he himself (!) asked for a pay-cut of $200,000.
We all know Stars have Ryan Suter, who's getting quadruple the amount of what Giordano is making – with their impacts being absolutely non-comparable. Giordano crushes Suter and it's not even close. He basically is exactly what the Stars front office *thinks* of Ryan Suter.
Image credit: Hockeyviz.com
Lastly, the reason I won't mention an overpayment that is Tyler Seguin's deal is because you cannot do anything about it. With a full no movement clause and tough signing bonuses it doesn't make any fiscal sense to touch that contract with the thought of a buyout. And when signing the contract, it was the right thing to do. Many fans forget it was also fair value.
How can a complete job looks like?
So, what's actually possible to do now – as I always like to reiterate – to maximize this roster's potential? And more importantly, are there any options available?
Actually, there are, although it's not as straight-forward to get them – as if acquiring an impactful defensemen, ideally right-handed, wasn't hard enough alone.
To get some, you gotta give some, cap-wise.
I can totally see Jim Nill going into the season with his roster being set as is. Some of the question marks could easily be resolved by time and playing time.
Is Thomas Harley ready for the next step and being Number 2 on defence? I believe so, but we have to wait and see. Is Nils Lundkvist ready for his next step and being at least Number 4 on defence? That is what will be really intriguing to monitor.
After we get some of these variable question marks away, Jim Nill will probably focus on addressing the persisting ones, which probably won't go away by any occurrence.
Ryan Suter will still probably play in the playoffs next season too, the question will be his actual role and position. To get him as low as possible on the depth chart, Nill simply has to add somebody to the fold. It is conceivable Harley would take over some of Suter's duties, but I really can't see a world where that applies for both him and Lundkvist.
Having Radek Faksa helps. On the faceoff dot, as a defensive specialist, yada yada. To me, he's mostly a trade option now. The same way as Anton Khudobin was last year.
Think about it. Khudobin was considered the goalie insurance policy, but couldn't be called upon due to his cap. I saw him more of a cap chip that could help facilitate a trade cap for cap, which is exactly what happened. Without Anton Khudobin, you probably couldn't see Max Domi repping Victory Green.
With Radek Faksa being still a usable NHL forward with a year left on his deal come the trade deadline, I can see a move that brings impactful defenceman the other way, be it as a rental option only. Think Chris Tanev.
He's my number one target due to his defensive acumen but also his extraordinary ability to move the puck from the defensive zone.
He's also the ideal partner for Miro Heiskanen to let him flourish on his natural side or Thomas Harley to simply be Thomas Harley and not to worry about much else.
This was the bold move I wanted to see from Jim Nill in the summer. He stuck to his guns and to his respect, that's what he's been doing throughout his career which has been rather illustrious. Maybe that's the correct approach.
But maybe, just maybe it will also be the reason why Dallas wouldn't be able to elavate themselves to the next level, however loaded their offensive lines will be. And it isn't because there were no options. It's because sometimes the exact thing that brought us where we are now is holding us back from taking the next step.
Let's just hope Jim Nill is able to see through that. Completely.
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Title image credit: USA Today, Christopher Hanewinckel.