Dallas Stars Prospect Pyramid & Thoughts (September 2023 edition)

It's hard to believe, but it's already a year since the first edition of Prospect Pyramid. Since the Traverse City Prospect Tournament is right around the corner, let's give the ol'pee-pee another go.

Welcome to the month of September – or as the hockey people like to call it –  the showcase month. Okay, maybe I'm the only one calling it like that. Nevertheless, in the coming days and weeks the actual hockey games will be played and there will be plenty of prospect discussion as to who can make the instant impact (a few) and who needs further seasoning (the rest) so why not go ahead and start already?

Last year, I blatantly copied Steve Dangle's idea of Prospect Pyramid but made some adjustments along the way. After reviewing it 12 months later, there were some surprisingly good takes to be found, for example the one where I predicted Wyatt Johnston to be a big factor already last season. Bear in mind, there wasn't much assurance he'd even make the team in September back then, let alone run with the opportunity like he did. Not to worry, there are some less impressive ones too, just for the right balance.

The basic idea of a prospect pyramid is that you don't rank prospects 1-to-10, or in some richer organisations 1-to-20 even, but you rather put them in tiers. Now why is that? Let me ask you this. Do you really want to haggle if Francesco Arcuri should be ranked 9th or 11th in your Dallas Stars prospect board? Yeah, me neither. 

(That's also why I don't get the immediate rapid fireworks after Corey Pronman's ranking of all 32 NHL franchises' prospect pools).

Rankings are tricky but most importantly, they are almost never 100% correct. Whereas when you put players – or in this case – prospects into tiers, the discussion becomes more nuanced and well-rounded. Or at least I think so. And then the question of eligibility arrives. 

So, what is a prospect anyway? 

For some, it is a player below a certain age-limit. For others, it is a player who's eligible to win a Calder trophy. The most beautiful example is none other than Wyatt Johnston. He's still only 20 years old, so should he still be considered a prospect? He's already an established NHL player, yet still a waiver exempt one. The Dallas Stars will be relying heavily on his services next season since Day 1 and the same goes for Thomas Harley. 

Last year it was the case of Ty Dellandrea. Before the season, he had already played 27 games at the highest level, but that was mostly due to injuries in covid-shortened season. He was not eligible for the Calder trophy anymore but still rated as a prospect in my eyes back then. Spoiler alert: I don't consider any of them prospects anymore. To me, they are young talents on the NHL roster already and honestly? Good for them. Good for the Stars as well.

For this reason, I came up with some PPMM (aka Prospect Pyramid Meritocracy Measures). If a player played 60 NHL games already – regular season and playoffs combined – he won't be considered for this year's pyramid. The age of a player is also an important factor, as there is a thing called developmental curve. Players born in the year 1999 or sooner are no longer considered eligible.

And a last little ado. Since there is a 2022 edition by myself already out, I will also be looking at the trends with certain prospects, whether they fare positively and are on the upswing (hello, Christian Kyrou) or they might have fallen a little bit compared to expectations (hi there, Riley Damiani).

So here are the Top 25 Dallas Stars prospects in my view. Let's dig in.

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Category 1: Potential NHL Star

Key graduate: Wyatt Johnston

Logan Stankoven (Trending: up)

He's him. 

Logan Stankoven is exactly what might take the current Stars team to the promised land. His stock was already pretty high last summer and it only went higher during the 2022-23 season. Yeah, Dallas is pretty deep on forwards this season and he might start the season in the AHL. But the most important thing for him – and the team – would be if he can be ready come playoff time, ideally next spring already. 

My bet is he will be.

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Category 2: Surefire NHL player

Key graduates: Thomas Harley, Ty Dellandrea

Mavrik Bourque (Trending: slightly down, but still positive!)

Okay, okay, don't worry Stars fans. 

Mavrik Bourque will eventually play in the NHL. He might also be the first call-up option this season in case of injuries. He also had a good rookie AHL season with a tougher beginning before finding his stride. So why the downwards trend? It's only about managing the expectations for me.

Last year I saw him as a potential NHL star. Can he still become that? Absolutely. But right now, the most probable scenario for him is becoming a surefire Top 6 option that *could* become a star. The margins are awfully thin on this one, though.

Lian Bichsel (Trending: up)

We saw what he can do in World Juniors this January against his peers. The fact that he has already played a full season against men in a very tough Swedish league confirms his high pedigree. He's an aggressive defenseman playing impressively with his stick to break down plays thanks to his impressive reach. He's also effective at moving the puck up the ice and the idea of pairing him with either Heiskanen or Harley makes many Stars fans drool. No wonder why.

Christian Kyrou (Trending: up)

We will all see what Kyrou is made of when he will be thrown against competitors much older and tougher than him in the AHL this coming year. His advanced metrics in juniors were *literally* off the charts as he was a dominating presence offensively. That's why I really believe he's a surefire NHL player in the future. Let's see if it will be in Victory Green, though.

Matěj Blümel (Trending: up)

Blümel surprised many people last season, but not the pyramid guy – JK. (Just kidding.) He started last season on fire and even earned his first NHL call-up and scored his first NHL goal. His impact on play in AHL was also impressive and has all the tools to make it and be a very goal-potent and serviceable bottom six winger for many years to come. Last year, I proclaimed him to be the next Mattias Janmark and I still stand by that.

Aram Minnetian (New arrival)

I may be going off the limb a little bit here calling a recent 4th round pick a slam dunk NHL player, but Aram Minnetian might be just that. In my eyes, he has everything a future NHL defenseman should have with his ability to defend and being active in the transition and moving the puck well. He may not be eligible sooner than two falls from now due to his NCAA commitment but he very well should be worth the wait.

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Category 3: Potential NHL player

Dropout: Conner Roulette

Artem Grushnikov (Trending: slightly down)

I might have put too much stock into Grushnhikov's future value for Dallas last year. He was just okay and his production in the OHL was certainly not good enough for an almost 20-year old. Sure, he's there to shut plays down but I have to say: I expected more from him. This coming season he'll play against men in the AHL (or possibly ECHL) and I'm intrigued to see if he'll be the impactful player I once thought he'd become.

Ayrton Martino (Trending: up)

Martino might be one of the brightest surprises of the current Stars prospect pool. He was the key impact player for Clarkson in the NCAA and has developed a shrewd toolbox that may be very helpful on his way to becoming a full-time NHLer. He'll probably not score too many goals but his ability to create things out of nothing at full speed can possibly translate well. Watch out for him. 

Francesco Arcuri (Trending: slightly up)

Arcuri had a fantastic season scoring-wise with 48 (!) goals for Kingston and Kitchener respectively. He has improved quite nicely since he was drafted and he'll also be tasting AHL waters this coming season. In a pure style of play, I see him as a direct opposite of Ayrton Martino, as Arcuri is more of a scorer who needs to work on his puck protection more, but it could potentially make them an interesting duo to pair together down the line.

Matthew Seminoff (Trending: up)

Seminoff might still be in that hit-or-miss area but last season was definitely a step in the right direction. Yes, he played with great line-mates most of the time (one of them tops this very list) but he wasn't being carried that much, quite the contrary. That he was only taken in the 6th round makes his potential success story so much more appealing.

Antonio Stranges (Trending: slightly down)

He was heavily praised by some last summer, but one has to wonder if it was more thanks to his highlight reel goals. Stranges couldn't really stick in the AHL last season mainly due to the fact he's made for the Top 6 position and isn't really a factor for the bottom six role, which may hinder his potential to be a Dallas Star player one day.

Tristan Bertucci (New arrival)

I'll be honest, I wasn't a big fan of this pick but I've come around to the wait-and-see mode for Bertucci. Dallas is already crowded on left defense and I see him as a Thomas Harley-lite type of player. His raw skills are good enough but there's still a long development ahead of him. The good thing is he has the tools to possibly surprise, maybe already this coming year with bigger opportunity in Flint.

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Category 4: NHL hopeful at best, probably a future AHLer

Dropout: Dawson Barteaux

Riley Damiani (Trending: down)

As I said last year, I was not that high on Damiani as others and turns out I was right. The interesting thing about him is he has all the tools needed but somehow can't put it together consistently. I may very well see him traded away in a package where Dallas seeks help on defense this season.

Remi Poirier (Trending: up)

His season in the ECHL was statistically very good and he proved his case during his shorter time in the AHL, too. He will be tested much more this year and probably create a tandem with Matt Murray for the Texas Stars. Experts say he still needs to work on his movement in his crease as he tends to do more than he should.

Gavin White (Trending: slightly down)

Drafted as an over-ager last year, he was okay in his last junior season but he wasn't spectacular enough to alter the slightly downwards trend in my eyes. Twelve months ago I was much higher on a potential Grushnikov-White connection from Hamilton than I'm right now. Let's see how he fares in the AHL and whether he might need some ECHL time as well.

Jack Bar (Trending: slightly up)

Jack Bar is another long-term project but he might get more time to shine this season for Harvard in the NCAA. His raw tools and the fact that he's a tall right-handed defenseman makes him interesting to watch further down the line.

Arno Tiefensee (New arrival)

I'll be honest here, Tiefensee is my favourite under-the-radar Stars prospect to watch right now. He's already 21 and just recently drafted but his season already started for Mannheim. Lanky goalie with very good reflexes and Herculean hairstyle might be a fascinating project to take on. I'm happy Dallas took a flier on him.

Brad Gardiner (New arrival)

Analytically, Gardiner was nothing to write home about last season but there are certain aspects to like definitely, as he was very good in every role he was given for Ottawa in the OHL last year. Dallas traded a next year's pick just to get him, so apparently they view him highly.

Kyle McDonald (New arrival)

An exciting player to monitor with his shooting and goal scoring ability in the AHL. I'm really curious if he can develop into more than that. Right now, he screams a solid AHL player to me with the ceiling just under the NHL.

Chase Wheatcroft (New arrival)

Wheatcroft is definitely flashy to say the least. Will it be enough to truly make it amongst men? I see him in a similar category as Stranges. It's good that the Stars are betting on this type of players instead of big, fast but not so skilled ones like years before. Maybe one of them pans out. Maybe even Wheatcroft.

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A few honorable mentions:

Graduates: Matt Murray
Dropouts: Jacob Holmes

Maxim Mayorov (Trending: who the hell knows with Russia anyways)

The word is Stars liked his tool-set when drafted him but couldn't really see him live yet. He’s had good numbers in the Russian junior league and he's included mostly because he's only 19 and 6 foot 6 tall. That alone will save you some pucks.

George Fegaras (Trending: slightly down)

Another long-term project that will only be starting his NCAA career this year. The raw skills are fine, but he's yet been tested against some good quality opposition. I'm slightly less convinced than last year but that doesn’t really mean anything.

Albert Sjoberg (Trending: down)

Sjoberg was a late round pick and nothing in his career trajectory suggests he will be more than that. Maybe this year something changes as he's slated to play for Malmo in the SHL. He was really close to not making the list and chances are the next time he won't. Let’s see.

Daniel Ljungman (Trending: down)

This is very similar situation as with Sjoberg. The biggest distinction is that Ljungman won't even probably play in the SHL next season as he's projected to play in Allsvenskan, Swedish 2nd tier league. It’s likely his last year in Pyramid unless he magically turns things around.

Angus MacDonell (New arrival)

Late-round pick from this year's draft shines with his work ethic, motor and craftsmanship around the net. The Stars will definitely hope for a similar progression as we've seen with Matthew Seminoff.

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Afterwords

Looking at the key graduates from last year, it's conceivable to think the Stars prospect pool got a little bit thinner. When you look at it from the practical perspective, Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley and even Ty Dellandrea are now fixed parts of the projected 2023-24 roster and that is actually a very good thing. 

Although they were big chunks of what made last year's prospect pool so deer, the Stars front office certainly likes where they're at right now. 

The Traverse City Prospect Tournament which starts in about a week cannot come soon enough so that we will finally get a chance to take a closer look at almost every prospect in the Dallas Stars pool in somewhat competitive fashion against their own peers.

Look out for the impact Lian Bichsel and Christian Kyrou might have on the backend while keeping an eye on the young man topping this year’s prospect pyramid, possibly also donning a new #11 on the back of his jersey? Let’s wait and see for that one.

Buckle up Stars fans, this season might be the wildest ride in recent history. And it starts soon.