My 2022-23 NHL Regular Season Standings Projections For Every Division

Back on Substack, homies! This time, let's talk standings predictions for the NHL regular season. We'll go through every division with a short two or three sentence explanation for every team.

Hey there, dear reader! 

It has been almost three weeks since you have got any update on this newsletter from yours truly. Apart from the usual finding a balance between my daily work and personal life, I've also been rather busy contributing to a Defending Big D as a writer. I hope you had time to read some of the stuff, for example my look on Ryan Suter or the very comprehensible Salary Cap preview all the way through 2025-26. There is more of it, so look it up if you feel like it.

But enough of the shameless plug for now. 

As we all know, the NHL season has just started, be it yesterday as the NHL was trying to persuade us or a few days prior in Prague. Your view is likely depending on whether you work in the NHL PR department or not. 

From now on, I would like to provide my general NHL views on many more teams and players on this substack – not just the Dallas Stars and the guys donning the Victory Green, but they'll appear too, don't worry. It just won't be all about them.

That's why I figured it would be a good time to present to you my regular season projections for every division and a few sentences on why I feel that way. For a better picture, I will include a points and standings projection from Dom Luszczyszyn – who covers NHL for The Athletic – as a comparison. 

Let's dig in. 

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Atlantic Division

1. Toronto Maple Leafs 

The biggest question mark is in the crease, but I have a feeling one of Murray / Samsonov will prove himself and be an improvement over Jack Campbell. If that happens, Toronto is a clear favorite for me not only in this division but possibly for the Presidents Trophy as well. 

2. Tampa Bay Lightning 

The race for second will be tight, but having Vasilevskiy and the core of Hedman - Point - Kucherov - Stamkos should be enough for Lightning to overpower Panthers and possibly also other teams. They also should be hungry after the Cup defeat.

3. Florida Panthers 

Their D core is somewhat thin after trading away Weegar, who was an unsung hero alongside Ekblad. Their offensive firepower should prop them to at least 3rd place, especially with Tkachuk there for the long term.

4. Boston Bruins

Somehow I feel the Bruins might surprise people if they manage to survive absences from the early months but I still don't see how they could jump ahead of Florida or Tampa. But they could possibly jump Panthers. 

5. Ottawa Senators

Ottawa should be fun to watch and when was the last time we could realistically say that? They could even push Boston out of the playoff picture if they start hot and the Bruins won't. But I feel it won't be enough this year. 

6. Detroit Red Wings 

Sometimes the rebuild has to end but the Atlantic is so stacked that I can't see Red Wings above 6th, especially with how Ottawa is rising. They should be better, but not enough to be in real contention.

7. Montreal Canadiens

The effect of St.Louis and also some under-the-radar acquisitions like Dadonov or Dach could help Canadiens not to finish last, but is that what they really want, when #TankHardForBedard will be in full swing?

8. Buffalo Sabres 

I'm not convinced, at all. Could Power and Dahlin and the other youngsters up front really make that much of a difference? Comrie is fine, but goaltending is still questionable for me.

Here are the point projections from Dom Luszczyszyn from The Athletic for comparison. 

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Metropolitan Division

1. Carolina Hurricanes

They are clear cut favorites in this division for me, strong and deep basically on every front. This could be the year for them, especially with Pacioretty as a free deadline acquisition available in February or March. 

2. New York Rangers

They may have overdid their potential during last season but are on the up, with one of the best (if not the best) goaltender taking them to next level. Young core will be a year older and more experienced thanks to that playoff run.

3. New Jersey Devils

It's debatable whether Blackwood or Vanecek is the answer, but Devils could be one of the biggest surprises of the season, deep and talented up front and on the D as well. I'm a fan of how they're constructed.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins 

Swan song for the core of Letang, Malkin and Crosby? They're signed for more years but it feels like this could be their last best shot at going at it.

5. New York Islanders 

Islanders could be tight in the playoff race with the Penguins and Capitals. I like their defensive core and goaltending but can they score enough to get into the playoffs at least? If so, only at the expense of the Bruins in the wild card race.

6. Washington Capitals

Old core and without Backstrom for the whole season? I can't see them jumping ahead of even Pittsburgh or Islanders, let alone being considered a contender at this point. Not a fan, really. 

7. Columbus Blue Jackets

They have the young pieces but the picture is still not complete yet. Should be fun to watch but still are one or two years away from contending realistically. 

8. Philadelphia Flyers

Torts can squeeze blood out of a stone but he isn't a magician and also, why should the Flyers even bother? They will be tough to play against but eventually will fade out to have the best chances for Bedard.

Here are the point projections from Dom Luszczyszyn from The Athletic for comparison. 

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Central Division

1. Colorado Avalanche 

Their defensive core is just unfair. Makar is a Hart Trophy candidate. MacKinnon is still MacKinnon. Maybe a bit too thin on centers but if Georgiev is a hit, they could be unstoppable again.

2. Minnesota Wild 

Even after the loss of Fiala and abundance of dead cap hits they will be a force and that's mostly thanks to the emergence of Boldy and Rossi who will gel with Kaprizov nicely.

3. Nashville Predators 

Preds will ride the wave from Prague and continue to be tough to play against, especially with Vezina worthy Saros in net. They've improved on D with McDonaugh and their match-up against the Wild in the playoffs will be fun.

4. Dallas Stars 

The DeBoer effect will be seen as he unlocks the offensive potential Stars have. Oettinger will provide much needed stability to cover for some mistakes of the defensive core. Playoff team, but only just.

5. St.Louis Blues 

If Jordan Binnington can continue the form he had in the playoffs, then Blues should be at least above Stars in the division. But that's too big of a if. Can they even make the playoffs? There is always one surprise omission in the postseason and this year, it is the Blues. 

6. Winnipeg Jets

Do you really think Rick Bowness can make that much of a difference? The Jets are an okay, middling team and that's probably the worst spot to be in the NHL. Apart from their dressing room. 

7. Chicago Blackhawks

The race for the last spot in Central will be rough and the Blackhawks will lose it eventually, they still just have a small upper hand over lousy Coyotes in my opinion.

8. Arizona Coyotes

Looking at the roster (and looming Chychrun departure) and also the arena, if there's one team that should be regulated to AHL, it's the Coyotes.

Here are the point projections from Dom Luszczyszyn from The Athletic for comparison. 

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Pacific Division

1. Calgary Flames

They are one of the best teams in the NHL to me, who would've thought that after the first day of free agency? If Kadri and Lindholm prove themselves as top two centers they will be hungry to beat everybody in the Pacific, especially the Oilers.

2. Edmonton Oilers 

It seems the Oilers have finally managed to surround McDavid and Draisaitl with at least somewhat adequate talent. Campbell in net is an improvement although Smith wasn't that bad last year.

3. Vegas Golden Knights

Lehner's injury is a big blow. Thompson was surprisingly decent last year and we'll see if he continues this year. They still have great pieces in Stone, Eichel, Theodore or Pietrangelo but overall their talent level dropped a bit. Could be enough to avoid a Wild Card spot, but only just. 

4. Los Angeles Kings

Analytically they overperformed last year but this year I see them as legitimate contenders in the Pacific. Maybe not ultimately in the playoffs but it's definitely possible for them to make some noise.

5. Vancouver Canucks

They're a mixed bag for me and I don't think the Boudreau effect will be that strong in the second season. Will Pettersson finally be the guy? Is the defense sufficient enough or will Demko make up for that also this season?

6. Anaheim Ducks

They're definitely on the up and thanks to Klingberg acquisition even somewhat competent on the backend. He could be gone by the trade deadline but the Ducks are a low-key good team and interesting to follow.

7. Seattle Kraken

They have improved but that was really a small feat to accomplish given how atrocious they were during the inaugural year. They still miss a little bit of everything to be taken seriously.

8. San Jose Sharks

Sharks will be bad and try to sell as much as possible – how much they'll sell is the biggest question mark, given how many bad contracts Mike Grier has in front of him. 

Here are the point projections from Dom Luszczyszyn from The Athletic for comparison. 

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So there you have it.

Funnily enough, after completing every division I realized we share the same playoff teams in the West with Dom and also in the exact order in both Central and Pacific Division. Things are much more complicated in the East, as Dom undervalues not only New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils in my opinion, but also the dynasty chasing Tampa Bay Lightning. 

We'll see who will have the upper hand at the end. 

I bet it won't be the guy who has writing as a full-time occupation, haha.