Long-term comprehensible salary cap outlook for the Dallas Stars

Let's take a walk through salary cap garden, where thorns are bad contracts and roses are entry level deals. This time all the way through 2025-26 season.

I have tried to dissect the summer of the Dallas Stars in my previous piece and left away with one word describing it – uneventful. There may be a reason behind it though, as Stars are always trying to explain to fans. The infamous salary cap. 

Well, though that might be true – but what’s probably even more important is the salary cap flexibility for the next couple of seasons after and not only the current one. 

Jim Nill and company have been at the wheel for almost a decade now and you can use some of their previous moves to determine the next. Let’s try this fun little exercise to determine Dallas Stars salary cap situation for the next 3 seasons, all the way till 2026. 

It sounds pretty far fetched going that far and it won’t be accurate, that is certain. But it may provide a clearer look for the fans, who are not as accustomed with the salary cap and they may use that when debating with their friends and act smart. Or rather, BE smart. 

What? You don’t talk about the cap situation of your team with your friends? What kind of friends do you even have? 

We will use contract projections from my latest article when counting with currently unsigned RFAs - Jason Robertson & Jake Oettinger. 

---

2022/23 Season — Confirmed Salary Cap Limit 82.5 million dollars

I project Robertson to sign a 7 year deal worth 7.857 million in AAV while Oettinger opts for a 3 year bridge deal worth 4 million in AAV. Those numbers surely won’t be exactly precise – if they are, I’m applying to work directly with Mark Janko – but I’d argue they won’t be that much different. 

So without further ado, this is your current Dallas Stars roster for the 2022-23 season. 

Total cap hit: ​​$82,259,499 – Total cap space: $240,501 – Players on roster: 22. 

This is the current depth chart of the Dallas Stars that is not counting either Wyatt Johnston, Mavrik Bourque or Logan Stankoven into the NHL roster equation yet. Not because they’re not good enough, but mainly because all of these players are on NHL one-way deals with the sole exception of Marian Studenic. 

If you want to insert one of them into the lineup, the most ready appear to be Wyatt Johnston. You need to extract one player out of the roster though and while my choice would be Radek Faksa, the decision would probably be between Joel Kiviranta and Marian Studenic. Either way it’s possible and only the September training camp will truly determine if push comes to shove with at least one of the magical trio. 

If we have learned one thing about Jim Nill during his tenure – is that he prioritizes asset management. Meaning, you probably wouldn’t see him paying somebody a high price just to help you with a bad contract. That’s why we’re assuming Anton Khudobin will stay on the roster for his final contract as an insurance between the pipes, albeit a very expensive one. 

However, things get a little trickier before they get easier after this season for one very good reason. Roope Hintz. 

---

2023/24 Season — Projected Salary Cap Limit 84 million dollars

While we seem to be swimming solely in Robertson & Oettinger discussions this summer, somewhat under the radar flies the fact Roope Hintz is eligible for an extension. 

He's a prime candidate for an 8-year contract worth around 8 million in AAV. He will be 26 when the deal kicks in and it’s a good bet he will outperform it, if he stays healthy – which is a slight issue with him, to be fair. 

Roope Hintz, 8 million in AAV for 8 years. 

Most notable expired UFAs are: Joe Pavelski (5.5M cap hit), Anton Khudobin (3.3M cap hit), Luke Glendening (1.5M cap hit), Joel Kiviranta (1.05M cap hit) and Joel Hanley (750k cap hit). 

Other notable extension candidates after Roope Hintz are: Denis Gurianov, Ty Dellandrea, Jacob Peterson, Riley Damiani and we may also include Joe Pavelski into the mix. 

It’s very hard to do contract projections without the data from the previous season, but let’s just assume the most probable number based on a career trajectory here to paint a picture. 

Denis Gurianov, 3.5 million in AAV for 4 years. 

A smart money's on Gurianov rebounding after a bad season under a new coach and earning some more money and term in the process. He’ll be 26 next summer and while a longer deal is also probable, 4 years are your best bet not to be stuck with a longer deal when it’s not providing you value anymore. Gurianov is also fairly inconsistent, so another short deal or even a trade is very possible here. 

Ty Dellandrea & Jacob Peterson, both 2.2 million in AAV for 2-3 years

I truly expect both Dellandrea and Peterson to prove their worth in the 2022-23 season. They have the talent and I really feel they just need the opportunity to do so on a nightly basis. Given the cap constraints for the team there isn’t another way here than a bridge deals for both. 

Now comes the decision whether to re-sign Joe Pavelski or go the UFA route to fill the obvious hole on the right side at defense. 

Adding Wyatt Johnston and Mavrik Bourque to the roster and with all those extensions in place, you’re looking for a roster that could look like this. 

Robertson - Hintz - Bourque
Marchment - Johnston - Seguin
Peterson - Dellandrea - Gurianov
Benn - Faksa - Damiani

Lindell - Heiskanen
Harley - Miller
Suter - Hakanpaa

Oettinger
Wedgewood

Extras: Studenič/Tufte, Grushnikov

This 22-man roster accounts for $82,395,334 in total cap hit, so it would be even compliant with current salary cap. If we assume the slight jump in the salary cap to 84 million ceiling, you’d have around 1.6 million in available cap space. 

As you can see, the defensive core remains unchanged from the 2022-23 season and that is probably not a good thing, especially when you are entering your competitive mode once again with Johnston and Bourque already on the roster. I’d argue Artem Grushnikov or even Lian Bichsel might be also ready for some NHL games with the way they play but there are other problems Jim Nill would need to resolve. 

First is Ryan Suter. He’ll be 38 years old with 2 years still left on his deal. Summer of 2023 is the time when you really have to pull the trigger on the buyout option for him. That move alone saves you $2,866,667 in cap space for the next 2 seasons while costing you ​​$1,433,333 against the cap in 2025-26 and 2026-27. Full cap hit calculations here: 

Suddenly with the cap slight raise you could have around 4.5 million to sign a better option for your defensive core. 

Second is Radek Faksa, who is even more easily replaceable than Suter. If there is one type of player Dallas Stars have an abundance of, it’s a fourth line center. Fredrik Karlstrom, Oskar Back or even potentially some cheap free agent signing would probably do the job so that you don’t need to overpay on your 4C the way the roster is constructed now. 

I get why the Stars haven’t pulled the trigger on Suter and Faksa this summer. Buying out Suter only a year into the deal would probably be viewed as an over-correction and he still provides some on-ice value. They also want to see what DeBoer can extract from Faksa in a more offensive playing system. However, Faksa’s price tag is pretty hefty for the role he plays and there is an obvious need of a first pair defenseman to play alongside Miro Heiskanen, ideally a right-handed one. 

If you manage to send Faksa away, you’d be saving an additional 3.25 million against the cap. If Jim Nill doesn’t want to pay a draft pick or isn’t able to find a trade dance partner, another option is buyout. 

You probably don’t want to buy out both Suter and Faksa at the same time, because it would cost you 2.5 million against the cap combined in both the 2025-26 and 2026-27 season. However, that 2.875 million in cap savings for the 2024-25 season without paying any assets is a pretty enticing option. It may sound strange, but I strongly believe there is a possible trade partner for him in need of a shutdown center. If I’m wrong, at least you have the option of buying him out. 

Either way, if they managed to get rid of Faksa’s contract as well, Stars could find themselves in a situation where they have around 7.5 million in cap space. Why is that important? The possible free agent pool seems very deep, at least now. Possible available right shot Ds capable of playing first line minutes include Mackenzie Weegar, Matt Dumba but also Damon Severson and our very own John Klingberg. 

The one I would be all over the board with is Weegar. He would complement Heiskanen’s game so fluidly they could really become one of the best pairings in the league. I imagine the price would be high – but that’s really the only free agent signing we’ll do for this exercise to prove that even with Hintz’s extension, it’s possible to fit another star under the limit. 

Remember, according to Jeff Marek, Stars offered Klingberg 7.25 million for 8 years last summer – so they have definitely planned to have that amount of money allocated to a player on their back end. 

I’d project Mackenzie Weegar could fetch slightly below 7 million in AAV in an open market for the maximum term, 7 years. This is what a roster could look like with him, assuming the salary cap ceiling is at 84 million mark. 

Total cap hit: ​​$83,878,667 – Total cap space: $121,333 – Players on roster: 22. 

You’d notice I didn’t include Joe Pavelski into the roster as I think he’ll opt for the retirement, but if not, he’d be probably more than welcome to re-sign at league minimum with a bonus laden contract. If he signs for 1 million base and 1 million in additional performance bonuses that would move onto the next season’s cap management – when things could get a little easier from the cap perspective. 

I think his work ethic could still find a space on a team, I’m just not comfortable in offering a 39-year old player more than a buriable contract if things go south. 

What I like about this roster is that every forward line includes 2 players fully capable of playing center while all three defensive formations have an ideal lefty-righty combination. With the career trajectory of the younger players I’d fully expect this roster to make the playoffs and possibly be a dark horse to surprise a few. 

---

2024-25 season — Projected Salary Cap Limit 86 million dollars

The reason why this season (and also continuation of this exercise) is noteworthy at least is that it’s the last year of Jamie Benn’s and Esa Lindell’s contracts, essentially ending one era – fortunately for the Stars the new one has already started by this time. I — and many others probably too — feel both Benn and Lindell would be role players by this time and that’s a lot of money tied up for role players, honestly. 

The thing I like about the Stars cap situation is that all key players are signed through the 2024-25 season with the sole exception of Thomas Harley. He’d be the only notable RFA with a need for a new deal. 

This is already a bit of a stretch, trying to project what the next deal of Thomas Harley looks like but the bigger picture is 2024-25 season is probably the last season of flat cap. You could expect the cap to rise into the mid nineties after this one so this really is probably the last season of salary cap crunch for the Dallas Stars. 

I’d project he could sign somewhere in the 3-4 million range, depending on his career progression. Taking in mind he’ll still be only 23 years old before the start of 2024-25 season, a 2 or a 3 year bridge deal might be the best possible route and Jim Nill has already done that with several players. Maybe the bigger question mark would be if Jim Nill is the one handing out contracts or somebody else at this point. 

While there are some departures at the UFA front, all of the players are replaceable. The list includes Colin Miller, Jani Hakanpaa and Scott Wedgewood. Fortunately for the Stars, there are some potential internal replacements for both defensemen as well as goalie. 

Lian Bichsel, huge defensive prospect capable of playing on the right side could be ready in 2 years to play the NHL, as he’s projected to play in Swedish league again this year. Artem Grushnikov should be also a staple in the lineup by that point and you still have potential in players like Gavin White or even Christian Kyrou. 

In the crease, I see a great potential in Matthew Murray, currently on a AHL deal with the Texas Stars. From the goalie prospects he has shown the greatest upside and could be ready to backup your undeniable starter, Jake Oettinger. 

This is a young and exciting team that has a little bit of everything. Size, skill, experience, youth, star-power – you name it. Maybe that’s why I projected them to win a cup in 2025 when doing a “Starcastic Remarks” interview with Ryan Chambers. 

Total cap hit: ​​$83,098,669 – Total cap space: Around 2.5M-3M  – Players on roster: 20. 

The cap moved 1M for the 2022-23 season and I’d expect it to move 1.5M for the 2023-24 season. Going with that, 2M move up in the 2024-25 season is pretty reasonable, but you can make it work with a slight raise of 1.5 million. 

This is a roster of 20 players who I believe are key for success in the 2024-25 season. The projection counts with a cap space between 2.5 and 3 million, totally depending on the state of affairs in the NHL in the summer of 2024. 

Nevertheless, this team excites me way more than the current one – but that’s mainly because of the cap-shedding moves that were done in our hypothetical summer of 2023. 

---

2025-26 season — Projected Salary Cap Limit 95 million dollars

Welcome to the uncharted waters and also congratulations, if you managed to read this far. This is the season when the Dallas Stars could have a new captain – and there are several noteworthy candidates. 

For me it’s the first year when the Dallas Stars could have only one bad contract on the books – and that’s still debatable – Tyler Seguin. The allocation of the space is also very crucial and we may make a full circle back to the present on this one. 

If Wyatt Johnston impresses in training camp and plays more than 9 games in the upcoming 2022-23 season, this year will be a time when he’ll need a new deal. If he’s back in OHL, his entry level contract slides a year forward. Same applies to Logan Stankoven and Artem Grushnikov. 

Mavrik Bourque is no longer an entry-slide candidate, though – and he will definitely need a new deal. Same goes for Antonio Stranges and maybe most notably, Jake Oettinger. 

If he indeed signs a bridge deal for a 3 year term, this is the season when his new extension kicks in – and I wouldn’t be too surprised if he’s the first double digit million cap hit in Stars history. 

Oettinger would essentially make what Jamie Benn was making up until this point. Fortunately, the cap is supposed to raise significantly in the 2025-26 season, when the players’ debt to owners should be paid. 

(Also, what a stupid thing, too. It just makes me even more persuaded that the salary cap is here so that owners can actually save money on salaries, orchestrated by their puppy, Gary Bettman). 

Some simple math: 

It may seem that everything is falling back to its place once the cap has risen significantly and I wonder how much different would the Stars roster actually look like if pandemic didn’t happen but that’s a moot point, of course. 

So what have we learned? 

Stars are not really in position to acquire much talent from outside, apart from filling up an obvious hole on the defensive right side, after John Klingberg left. There is only one right-handed defenseman in the 2025-26 roster projection and it’s the one we scooped up in free agency, Mackenzie Weegar. Yes, there is Kyrou, White and maybe even Fegaras or Bar in the pipeline, but right now, they’re all magic beans. 

We’ve also learned that Stars are not in position to trade for guys, unless it’s dollars in, dollars out type of a trade that benefits both sides. Good thing is they have sufficient supply of internal support from inside they don’t really need it that much. 

Yes, there will be more trades in reality than in this funny little exercise. In our final roster projection for 2025-26 there are 17 home grown players with only 3 players signed as free agents, two of which are already with the team, Mason Marchment and Matthew Murray. 

And that is really something they got to take advantage of. That’s how the championship teams are built.